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Ligue 1

Referee: P Gaillouste

Paris SG

S S S T S

5–0

Full-time

Ajaccio

T T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Ajaccio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,8

0,3

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 46%

74%

18%

Points per game

2,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

68%

50%

Both score Ø 47%

56%

38%

Average goals

3,4

2,4

Scored

2,3

0,6

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,37 xG 0,40

73% Possession 27%

16 Shots 7

9 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Paris SG 1. · Ajaccio 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	34	25	3	6	+44	+5.8	78
2	Lens	35	22	9	4	+32	+6.9	75
3	Marseille	34	21	7	6	+28	+9.6	70
4	Monaco	34	19	7	8	+17	+4.5	64
5	Lille	34	17	8	9	+19	+12.9	59
6	Rennes	34	17	5	12	+18	+2.4	56
7	Lyon	34	16	8	10	+16	+1.8	56
8	Nice	35	13	12	10	+8	+4.8	51
9	Lorient	34	14	9	11	+2	-4.5	51
10	Reims	35	12	14	9	+5	+10.2	50
11	Clermont	34	14	8	12	-7	-0.4	50
12	Montpellier	34	13	4	17	-1	-1.6	43
13	Toulouse	34	12	6	16	-7	+2.0	42
14	Strasbourg	35	9	11	15	-7	+3.8	38
15	Brest	34	8	11	15	-12	-8.5	35
16	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	-24	-2.9	34
17	Nantes	34	6	14	14	-15	-6.1	32
18	Ajaccio	34	6	5	23	-39	-6.5	23
19	Troyes	34	4	10	20	-31	-21.6	22
20	Angers	34	3	5	26	-46	-12.5	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	18	16	1	1	+25	+1.0	49
2	Rennes	17	13	0	4	+23	+4.4	39
3	Paris SG	17	12	2	3	+16	-1.2	38
4	Lille	17	11	4	2	+13	+9.7	37
5	Marseille	17	9	4	4	+10	+6.1	31
6	Lyon	17	8	5	4	+11	+3.3	29
7	Reims	17	8	5	4	+7	+10.5	29
8	Monaco	17	9	2	6	+5	-0.6	29
9	Lorient	17	8	4	5	+6	+2.1	28
10	Nice	17	6	6	5	+4	+2.1	24
11	Clermont	17	7	3	7	-11	+1.8	24
12	Montpellier	17	7	2	8	+1	-0.4	23
13	Toulouse	17	6	4	7	+0	+2.0	22
14	Auxerre	17	5	7	5	-7	+1.6	22
15	Strasbourg	18	5	6	7	-1	+6.0	21
16	Brest	16	5	5	6	-3	-2.4	20
17	Nantes	17	4	8	5	-4	-1.3	20
18	Troyes	17	1	9	7	-11	-12.5	12
19	Ajaccio	17	3	3	11	-16	-1.0	12
20	Angers	18	2	3	13	-17	-4.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	13	1	3	+28	+7.0	40
2	Marseille	17	12	3	2	+18	+3.5	39
3	Monaco	17	10	5	2	+12	+5.1	35
4	Lyon	17	8	3	6	+5	-1.5	27
5	Nice	18	7	6	5	+4	+2.8	27
6	Lens	17	6	8	3	+7	+5.9	26
7	Clermont	17	7	5	5	+4	-2.3	26
8	Lorient	17	6	5	6	-4	-6.6	23
9	Lille	17	6	4	7	+6	+3.3	22
10	Reims	18	4	9	5	-2	-0.3	21
11	Montpellier	17	6	2	9	-2	-1.2	20
12	Toulouse	17	6	2	9	-7	-0.0	20
13	Rennes	17	4	5	8	-5	-2.0	17
14	Strasbourg	17	4	5	8	-6	-2.2	17
15	Brest	18	3	6	9	-9	-6.1	15
16	Nantes	17	2	6	9	-11	-4.8	12
17	Auxerre	17	3	3	11	-17	-4.5	12
18	Ajaccio	17	3	2	12	-23	-5.5	11
19	Troyes	17	3	1	13	-20	-9.1	10
20	Angers	16	1	2	13	-29	-7.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.