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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira

Aves

S T U U T

1–3

Full-time

Guimaraes

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aves Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 22%

11%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

56%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

56%

44%

Average goals

2,6

3,0

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,7

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

63% Possession 37%

15 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

19 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aves 16. · Guimaraes 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	9	1	0	+24	28
2	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+17	26
3	Benfica	10	7	2	1	+13	23
4	Sp Braga	10	7	0	3	+8	21
5	Maritimo	10	6	1	3	+3	19
6	Belenenses	10	5	1	4	+0	16
7	Rio Ave	10	4	2	4	+1	14
8	Boavista	10	4	1	5	-1	13
9	Pacos Ferreira	10	3	3	4	-6	12
10	Feirense	10	3	2	5	-3	11
11	Guimaraes	9	3	2	4	-7	11
12	Vitoria Setubal	9	2	4	3	+1	10
13	Tondela	10	2	3	5	-2	9
14	Portimonense	9	2	2	5	-6	8
15	Chaves	10	2	2	6	-7	8
16	Aves	9	1	3	5	-7	6
17	Moreirense	10	1	3	6	-12	6
18	Estoril	10	2	0	8	-16	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Maritimo	6	5	1	0	+6	16
2	Porto	5	5	0	0	+18	15
3	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+11	15
4	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+8	13
5	Belenenses	5	4	1	0	+6	13
6	Sp Braga	5	4	0	1	+8	12
7	Pacos Ferreira	5	3	2	0	+3	11
8	Rio Ave	6	3	1	2	+2	10
9	Guimaraes	5	3	1	1	-2	10
10	Vitoria Setubal	5	2	3	0	+4	9
11	Boavista	5	3	0	2	-1	9
12	Portimonense	4	2	1	1	+1	7
13	Feirense	5	2	1	2	-2	7
14	Chaves	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-1	4
16	Aves	5	1	1	3	-5	4
17	Estoril	4	1	0	3	-4	3
18	Moreirense	4	0	2	2	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	Porto	5	4	1	0	+6	13
3	Sp Braga	5	3	0	2	+0	9
4	Benfica	5	2	2	1	+2	8
5	Tondela	5	1	2	2	-1	5
6	Boavista	5	1	1	3	+0	4
7	Feirense	5	1	1	3	-1	4
8	Rio Ave	4	1	1	2	-1	4
9	Chaves	6	1	1	4	-7	4
10	Moreirense	6	1	1	4	-8	4
11	Maritimo	4	1	0	3	-3	3
12	Belenenses	5	1	0	4	-6	3
13	Estoril	6	1	0	5	-12	3
14	Aves	4	0	2	2	-2	2
15	Vitoria Setubal	4	0	1	3	-3	1
16	Guimaraes	4	0	1	3	-5	1
17	Portimonense	5	0	1	4	-7	1
18	Pacos Ferreira	5	0	1	4	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.