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Eredivisie

Referee: D Makkelie

Utrecht

S U S S T

4–1

Full-time

Telstar

T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Telstar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 28/29 matches

Win Ø 30%

39%

21%

Points per game

1,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

46%

55%

Both score Ø 62%

61%

62%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,57 xG 1,32

41% Possession 59%

18 Shots 13

9 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Utrecht 10. · Telstar 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	29	23	2	4	+42	+29.1	71
2	Feyenoord	29	16	6	7	+21	+25.6	54
3	Nijmegen	29	15	8	6	+24	+9.3	53
4	Twente	30	14	11	5	+19	+26.8	53
5	Ajax	28	11	12	5	+15	+7.2	45
6	AZ Alkmaar	29	13	6	10	+4	+18.0	45
7	Heerenveen	28	12	7	9	+6	+9.8	43
8	Sparta Rotterdam	29	12	6	11	-12	-4.1	42
9	Groningen	28	12	5	11	+7	+11.4	41
10	Utrecht	28	11	7	10	+10	+2.1	40
11	Go Ahead Eagles	29	8	11	10	+5	-16.3	35
12	For Sittard	29	10	5	14	-11	-14.8	35
13	Zwolle	29	8	9	12	-20	-17.7	33
14	Volendam	30	7	7	16	-19	-24.2	28
15	Telstar	29	6	9	14	-10	-11.8	27
16	Excelsior	29	7	6	16	-20	-16.5	27
17	NAC Breda	29	5	9	15	-21	-8.7	24
18	Heracles	29	5	4	20	-40	-25.5	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	11	2	2	+23	+17.4	35
2	Feyenoord	15	10	2	3	+14	+18.6	32
3	Twente	15	8	4	3	+9	+15.8	28
4	Nijmegen	14	8	3	3	+15	+9.6	27
5	Ajax	14	8	3	3	+14	+13.4	27
6	AZ Alkmaar	14	7	5	2	+10	+13.2	26
7	Heerenveen	15	7	5	3	+8	+11.6	26
8	Go Ahead Eagles	15	6	6	3	+13	+2.9	24
9	Zwolle	14	7	3	4	+1	-0.4	24
10	Utrecht	13	7	2	4	+11	+7.1	23
11	Volendam	15	6	5	4	+4	-3.3	23
12	Sparta Rotterdam	14	6	4	4	-3	+1.2	22
13	Groningen	14	6	3	5	+9	+6.6	21
14	For Sittard	14	6	3	5	-1	-0.9	21
15	NAC Breda	15	4	5	6	-3	+2.6	17
16	Heracles	14	4	3	7	-7	-5.6	15
17	Telstar	15	3	5	7	-3	-1.5	14
18	Excelsior	15	4	2	9	-7	-4.9	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	14	12	0	2	+19	+11.7	36
2	Nijmegen	15	7	5	3	+9	-0.3	26
3	Twente	15	6	7	2	+10	+11.0	25
4	Feyenoord	14	6	4	4	+7	+7.1	22
5	Groningen	14	6	2	6	-2	+4.8	20
6	Sparta Rotterdam	15	6	2	7	-9	-5.3	20
7	AZ Alkmaar	15	6	1	8	-6	+4.8	19
8	Ajax	14	3	9	2	+1	-6.2	18
9	Utrecht	15	4	5	6	-1	-4.9	17
10	Heerenveen	13	5	2	6	-2	-1.7	17
11	For Sittard	15	4	2	9	-10	-14.0	14
12	Telstar	14	3	4	7	-7	-10.4	13
13	Excelsior	14	3	4	7	-13	-11.7	13
14	Go Ahead Eagles	14	2	5	7	-8	-19.1	11
15	Zwolle	15	1	6	8	-21	-17.3	9
16	NAC Breda	14	1	4	9	-18	-11.3	7
17	Volendam	15	1	2	12	-23	-20.8	5
18	Heracles	15	1	1	13	-33	-19.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.