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Eredivisie

Referee: J Kooij

Nijmegen

S S S S S

4–1

Full-time

Heracles

T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,3

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

1,3

2,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 20/21 matches

Win Ø 40%

55%

24%

Points per game

1,9

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 81%

85%

76%

Both score Ø 69%

80%

57%

Average goals

4,3

4,0

Scored

2,6

1,4

Conceded

1,7

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,55 xG 1,16

69% Possession 31%

15 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 18

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nijmegen 3. · Heracles 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	21	18	2	1	+39	+20.9	56
2	Feyenoord	21	12	3	6	+19	+18.3	39
3	Nijmegen	20	11	5	4	+18	+6.8	38
4	Ajax	20	9	8	3	+11	+6.9	35
5	Sparta Rotterdam	21	11	2	8	-7	-2.8	35
6	AZ Alkmaar	21	9	5	7	+1	+13.3	32
7	Twente	21	7	10	4	+7	+20.7	31
8	Groningen	20	9	4	7	+4	+11.3	31
9	Zwolle	21	7	5	9	-13	-14.7	26
10	Excelsior	22	7	5	10	-13	-13.3	26
11	For Sittard	21	7	4	10	-5	-13.8	25
12	Heerenveen	19	6	6	7	+1	+12.7	24
13	Utrecht	19	6	5	8	+3	-2.4	23
14	Go Ahead Eagles	20	4	10	6	-3	-12.6	22
15	Volendam	21	4	6	11	-14	-19.6	18
16	Heracles	21	5	2	14	-23	-14.0	17
17	Telstar	21	3	7	11	-12	-9.8	16
18	NAC Breda	22	3	7	12	-13	-7.9	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	8	2	1	+20	+13.2	26
2	Feyenoord	11	7	1	3	+11	+11.2	22
3	Nijmegen	9	6	2	1	+12	+7.2	20
4	Ajax	10	6	2	2	+8	+10.3	20
5	Zwolle	10	6	1	3	+1	-0.0	19
6	For Sittard	10	5	2	3	+2	-0.8	17
7	Sparta Rotterdam	11	5	2	4	-5	-0.9	17
8	Utrecht	9	5	1	3	+8	+3.6	16
9	Volendam	11	4	4	3	+3	-1.4	16
10	AZ Alkmaar	10	4	4	2	+2	+7.8	16
11	Twente	10	4	4	2	+2	+11.8	16
12	Groningen	10	4	3	3	+6	+9.3	15
13	Go Ahead Eagles	9	3	5	1	+3	+0.6	14
14	Heerenveen	11	3	5	3	-1	+8.9	14
15	Excelsior	11	4	2	5	-2	-5.3	14
16	Heracles	10	4	1	5	-4	-2.0	13
17	NAC Breda	12	3	3	6	-4	+2.4	12
18	Telstar	11	1	4	6	-6	-1.1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	10	0	0	+19	+7.8	30
2	Nijmegen	11	5	3	3	+6	-0.4	18
3	Sparta Rotterdam	10	6	0	4	-2	-1.9	18
4	Feyenoord	10	5	2	3	+8	+7.1	17
5	AZ Alkmaar	11	5	1	5	-1	+5.5	16
6	Groningen	10	5	1	4	-2	+2.0	16
7	Twente	11	3	6	2	+5	+8.9	15
8	Ajax	10	3	6	1	+3	-3.4	15
9	Excelsior	11	3	3	5	-11	-8.0	12
10	Heerenveen	8	3	1	4	+2	+3.8	10
11	Telstar	10	2	3	5	-6	-8.7	9
12	Go Ahead Eagles	11	1	5	5	-6	-13.1	8
13	For Sittard	11	2	2	7	-7	-13.0	8
14	Utrecht	10	1	4	5	-5	-6.0	7
15	Zwolle	11	1	4	6	-14	-14.7	7
16	NAC Breda	10	0	4	6	-9	-10.3	4
17	Heracles	11	1	1	9	-19	-12.0	4
18	Volendam	10	0	2	8	-17	-18.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.