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Championship
Referee: Lewis Smith
Preston
S U T U S
1–1
Full-time
Wrexham
U S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Preston Wrexham
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
2,8
1,7
Scored
1,7
1,2
Conceded
1,2
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 18/18 matches
Win Ø 39%
44%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 39%
44%
33%
Both score Ø 61%
61%
61%
Average goals
2,4
2,4
Scored
1,4
1,3
Conceded
1,1
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,43 xG 1,40
57% Possession 43%
24 Shots 9
7 Shots on target 3
8 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 5
16 Corners 2
1 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 6
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Preston 5. · Wrexham 12.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Coventry 18 13 4 1 +32 +19.3 43
2 Middlesbrough 17 9 5 3 +5 +3.3 32
3 Millwall 18 9 4 5 -3 +3.8 31
4 Stoke 18 9 3 6 +12 -0.4 30
5 Preston 18 8 6 4 +6 -2.1 30
6 Bristol City 18 8 5 5 +6 +1.5 29
7 Ipswich 18 7 7 4 +11 +14.6 28
8 Birmingham 18 8 4 6 +7 +12.1 28
9 Hull 18 8 4 6 +0 -11.1 28
10 Watford 19 7 6 6 +2 +3.2 27
11 Leicester 19 7 6 6 +1 -3.6 27
12 Wrexham 18 6 8 4 +3 -4.8 26
13 Derby 19 7 5 7 -2 -6.4 26
14 West Brom 18 7 4 7 -2 +0.9 25
15 QPR 18 7 4 7 -6 +1.7 25
16 Southampton 17 6 5 6 +3 +8.5 23
17 Charlton 18 6 5 7 -5 -8.3 23
18 Blackburn 18 6 3 9 -5 +4.3 21
19 Sheffield United 18 6 1 11 -8 +3.8 19
20 Oxford 18 4 6 8 -5 -5.2 18
21 Swansea 18 4 5 9 -9 -9.1 17
22 Portsmouth 18 4 5 9 -10 -6.8 17
23 Norwich 19 3 4 12 -11 -6.7 13
24 Sheffield Weds 18 1 5 12 -22 -12.2 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

26. Aug -25 Preston – Wrexham 2–3

Match report

Preston Wrexham
4′
K. Moore 0–1
Half-time 0–1
Alfie Devine 🟨
49′
D. Jebbison 🔁
↦ P. Valentin
60′
O. Offiah 🔁
↦ S. T. Thordarson
60′
63′
🟨 Arthur Okonkwo
H. Armstrong 🔁
↦ L. Dobbin
70′
75′
🔁 R. Longman
↦ R. Barnett
78′
🔁 J. Windass
↦ N. Broadhead
79′
🔁 M. James
↦ B. Sheaf
1–1 H. Armstrong
81′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Preston

3-4-1-2
1 D. Iversen G
14 J. Storey D
6 L. Lindsay D
16 A. Hughes D
2 P. Valentin M
22 S. T. Thordarson M
4 B. Whiteman M
26 T. Small M
21 A. Devine F
17 L. Dobbin F
24 M. Smith F
Bench (9)
12 J. Walton
3 A. Vukcevic
5 H. Armstrong
7 W. Keane
9 D. Jebbison
15 J. Thompson
35 N. Mawene
36 E. Nolan
42 O. Offiah

Coach: Paul Heckingbottom

Wrexham

3-5-2
1 A. Okonkwo G
4 M. Cleworth D
24 D. Scarr D
5 D. Hyam D
29 R. Barnett M
18 B. Sheaf M
15 G. Dobson M
14 G. Thomason M
7 J. McClean M
33 N. Broadhead F
19 K. Moore F
Bench (9)
25 C. Burton
2 C. Doyle
9 R. Hardie
10 J. Windass
20 O. Rathbone
27 L. O'Brien
28 S. Smith
37 M. James
47 R. Longman

Coach: Phil Parkinson

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,41
U ✓
3,12
B
3,05
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,24
U2,5 ✓
1,61
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Lewis Smith · 18 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
18,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,06 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.