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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Leeds

S S T U U

0–3

Full-time

Liverpool

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,5

Scored

2,2

Conceded

1,5

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,8

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

4,0

2,3

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

2,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

44% Possession 56%

9 Shots 30

4 Shots on target 9

1 Blocked shots 15

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 11

2 Offside 4

9 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 17. · Liverpool 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	4	3	1	0	+8	10
2	Chelsea	4	3	1	0	+8	10
3	Man City	4	3	0	1	+10	9
4	Brighton	4	3	0	1	+2	9
5	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+0	9
6	West Ham	4	2	2	0	+5	8
7	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+5	7
8	Everton	3	2	1	0	+4	7
9	Leicester	4	2	0	2	-2	6
10	Brentford	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Crystal Palace	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Aston Villa	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Wolves	4	1	0	3	-1	3
14	Southampton	4	0	3	1	-2	3
15	Watford	4	1	0	3	-4	3
16	Arsenal	4	1	0	3	-8	3
17	Leeds	3	0	2	1	-4	2
18	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Newcastle	4	0	1	3	-7	1
20	Norwich	4	0	0	4	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+10	6
2	Man United	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+3	4
6	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Aston Villa	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Brentford	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Watford	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Southampton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Burnley	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Newcastle	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Everton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Man United	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Man City	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Leicester	2	1	0	1	-2	3
10	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	-2	3
11	Brentford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Southampton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-3	1
14	Leeds	2	0	1	1	-4	1
15	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
16	Watford	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	Newcastle	2	0	0	2	-5	0
19	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-6	0
20	Arsenal	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.