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Eredivisie

Referee: Sander van der Eijk

For Sittard

S T S U U

1–3

Full-time

Ajax

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

For Sittard Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 14/13 matches

Win Ø 37%

36%

38%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

50%

62%

Both score Ø 71%

64%

77%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,4

1,8

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,72 xG 1,01

36% Possession 64%

26 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match For Sittard 9. · Ajax 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	13	1	1	+29	+13.8	40
2	Feyenoord	14	10	1	3	+18	+19.0	31
3	Nijmegen	14	7	3	4	+13	+5.9	24
4	AZ Alkmaar	14	7	3	4	+4	+8.5	24
5	Groningen	14	7	2	5	+2	+7.0	23
6	Utrecht	13	6	2	5	+6	-1.5	20
7	Ajax	13	5	5	3	+4	+2.8	20
8	Twente	14	5	5	4	+3	+10.8	20
9	For Sittard	14	5	3	6	-2	-5.6	18
10	Go Ahead Eagles	14	4	5	5	-1	-6.4	17
11	Sparta Rotterdam	14	5	2	7	-12	-5.9	17
12	Heerenveen	14	4	4	6	-3	+10.5	16
13	Zwolle	14	4	4	6	-12	-12.3	16
14	Excelsior	15	5	1	9	-12	-11.1	16
15	Volendam	14	3	5	6	-7	-11.2	14
16	Heracles	14	4	1	9	-14	-11.7	13
17	NAC Breda	14	3	3	8	-8	-6.3	12
18	Telstar	14	2	4	8	-8	-6.4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	1	1	+12	+8.9	16
2	Nijmegen	7	5	1	1	+11	+6.4	16
3	Utrecht	6	5	0	1	+10	+3.7	15
4	Feyenoord	7	5	0	2	+5	+11.1	15
5	For Sittard	7	4	2	1	+4	+2.6	14
6	Ajax	7	4	1	2	+4	+5.3	13
7	Volendam	7	3	3	1	+4	-0.4	12
8	Go Ahead Eagles	7	3	3	1	+3	-0.2	12
9	Heerenveen	8	3	3	2	+1	+8.8	12
10	Groningen	7	3	2	2	+4	+4.8	11
11	AZ Alkmaar	6	3	2	1	+3	+4.4	11
12	Twente	7	3	2	2	+0	+6.7	11
13	NAC Breda	7	3	1	3	+0	+3.1	10
14	Zwolle	7	3	1	3	-5	-3.1	10
15	Heracles	6	3	0	3	+0	-1.8	9
16	Excelsior	8	3	0	5	-3	-6.0	9
17	Sparta Rotterdam	7	2	2	3	-7	-3.2	8
18	Telstar	8	1	3	4	-4	+0.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	0	0	+17	+4.9	24
2	Feyenoord	7	5	1	1	+13	+7.9	16
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	1	3	+1	+4.2	13
4	Groningen	7	4	0	3	-2	+2.2	12
5	Twente	7	2	3	2	+3	+4.2	9
6	Sparta Rotterdam	7	3	0	4	-5	-2.7	9
7	Nijmegen	7	2	2	3	+2	-0.4	8
8	Ajax	6	1	4	1	+0	-2.5	7
9	Excelsior	7	2	1	4	-9	-5.0	7
10	Zwolle	7	1	3	3	-7	-9.2	6
11	Go Ahead Eagles	7	1	2	4	-4	-6.1	5
12	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	-4	-5.2	5
13	Heerenveen	6	1	1	4	-4	+1.7	4
14	Telstar	6	1	1	4	-4	-6.8	4
15	For Sittard	7	1	1	5	-6	-8.2	4
16	Heracles	8	1	1	6	-14	-9.9	4
17	NAC Breda	7	0	2	5	-8	-9.4	2
18	Volendam	7	0	2	5	-11	-10.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.