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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Aston Villa

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Arsenal

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

2,5

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 64%

57%

71%

Points per game

1,9

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

50%

36%

Both score Ø 40%

43%

36%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

1,4

1,9

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,16 xG 1,92

47% Possession 53%

15 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 9

7 Blocked shots 1

7 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 3

0 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 3. · Arsenal 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	14	10	3	1	+20	+17.0	33
2	Man City	14	9	1	4	+16	+12.2	28
3	Aston Villa	14	8	3	3	+6	-4.7	27
4	Chelsea	14	7	3	4	+10	+5.9	24
5	Crystal Palace	14	6	5	3	+7	+6.3	23
6	Sunderland	14	6	5	3	+4	-6.4	23
7	Brighton	14	6	4	4	+4	+3.8	22
8	Man United	14	6	4	4	+1	+3.5	22
9	Liverpool	14	7	1	6	+0	+6.3	22
10	Everton	14	6	3	5	-2	-2.3	21
11	Tottenham	14	5	4	5	+5	-6.9	19
12	Newcastle	14	5	4	5	+1	+3.7	19
13	Brentford	14	6	1	7	-1	+4.5	19
14	Bournemouth	14	5	4	5	-3	+1.2	19
15	Fulham	14	5	2	7	-3	-3.5	17
16	Nott'm Forest	14	4	3	7	-8	-4.5	15
17	Leeds	14	4	2	8	-10	-1.3	14
18	West Ham	14	3	3	8	-12	-9.7	12
19	Burnley	14	3	1	10	-13	-18.8	10
20	Wolves	14	0	2	12	-22	-6.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	7	6	1	0	+16	+10.4	19
2	Man City	7	6	0	1	+13	+8.7	18
3	Brentford	7	5	1	1	+7	+4.5	16
4	Aston Villa	7	5	1	1	+6	-1.6	16
5	Sunderland	7	4	3	0	+7	-0.9	15
6	Brighton	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.4	14
7	Bournemouth	7	4	2	1	+5	+4.9	14
8	Fulham	7	4	1	2	+5	+1.0	13
9	Man United	7	4	1	2	+4	+7.9	13
10	Newcastle	7	4	1	2	+3	+4.7	13
11	Liverpool	7	4	1	2	+2	+4.3	13
12	Chelsea	7	3	2	2	+3	+3.1	11
13	Leeds	7	3	2	2	+2	+6.6	11
14	Everton	7	3	2	2	-1	+0.9	11
15	Crystal Palace	7	2	4	1	+2	+5.9	10
16	Burnley	7	2	1	4	-2	-7.6	7
17	Nott'm Forest	7	2	1	4	-5	+0.9	7
18	West Ham	7	2	0	5	-9	-4.1	6
19	Tottenham	7	1	2	4	-1	-2.8	5
20	Wolves	7	0	1	6	-11	-0.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+6	-4.2	14
2	Arsenal	7	4	2	1	+4	+6.6	14
3	Chelsea	7	4	1	2	+7	+2.8	13
4	Crystal Palace	7	4	1	2	+5	+0.4	13
5	Aston Villa	7	3	2	2	+0	-3.0	11
6	Man City	7	3	1	3	+3	+3.5	10
7	Everton	7	3	1	3	-1	-3.2	10
8	Liverpool	7	3	0	4	-2	+2.0	9
9	Man United	7	2	3	2	-3	-4.3	9
10	Brighton	7	2	2	3	-1	+1.4	8
11	Nott'm Forest	7	2	2	3	-3	-5.4	8
12	Sunderland	7	2	2	3	-3	-5.4	8
13	Newcastle	7	1	3	3	-2	-1.0	6
14	West Ham	7	1	3	3	-3	-5.6	6
15	Bournemouth	7	1	2	4	-8	-3.7	5
16	Fulham	7	1	1	5	-8	-4.5	4
17	Brentford	7	1	0	6	-8	+0.0	3
18	Burnley	7	1	0	6	-11	-11.1	3
19	Leeds	7	1	0	6	-12	-7.9	3
20	Wolves	7	0	1	6	-11	-6.2	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.