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Premier League

Referee: D England

Arsenal

S S S S T

3–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

S T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

0,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,84 xG 0,20

54% Possession 46%

16 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 3. · Nott'm Forest 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.2	9
2	Chelsea	3	2	1	0	+6	+4.3	7
3	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+5	+2.5	6
4	Tottenham	3	2	0	1	+4	-0.5	6
5	Sunderland	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.3	6
6	Everton	3	2	0	1	+2	-1.3	6
7	Bournemouth	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.7	6
8	Crystal Palace	3	1	2	0	+3	+0.7	5
9	Man United	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.5	4
10	Nott'm Forest	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.5	4
11	Brighton	3	1	1	1	-1	+2.0	4
12	Leeds	3	1	1	1	-4	-1.1	4
13	Man City	3	1	0	2	+1	+1.9	3
14	Burnley	3	1	0	2	-2	-3.6	3
15	Brentford	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.7	3
16	West Ham	3	1	0	2	-4	-0.5	3
17	Newcastle	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.3	2
18	Fulham	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.9	2
19	Aston Villa	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.8	1
20	Wolves	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.5	6
2	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.5	6
3	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.3	4
4	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	4
5	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.6	4
6	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+5	+2.7	3
7	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.0	3
8	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
9	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.8	3
10	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
11	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
12	Man United	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.6	3
13	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.4	3
14	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
15	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
16	Aston Villa	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.7	1
17	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
18	Man City	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.4	0
19	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.0	0
20	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.6	4
2	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.0	3
3	Man City	2	1	0	1	+3	+1.5	3
4	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.4	3
5	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
6	Everton	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.5	3
7	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.5	3
8	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
9	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.9	3
10	Newcastle	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.0	2
11	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
12	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
13	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.0	1
14	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
15	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.0	0
16	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
17	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.8	0
18	Brentford	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.7	0
19	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.8	0
20	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-5	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.