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Eredivisie

Referee: Bjorn Kuipers

AZ Alkmaar

S S S S T

1–3

Full-time

Willem II

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Willem II

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,8

2,2

Conceded

0,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

This season — Eredivisie · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 64%

72%

56%

Points per game

2,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

61%

50%

Both score Ø 36%

22%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

0,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

16 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 7

9 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 2. · Willem II 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	18	14	2	2	+42	44
2	AZ Alkmaar	18	13	2	3	+28	41
3	PSV Eindhoven	18	10	4	4	+19	34
4	Feyenoord	19	9	7	3	+7	34
5	Vitesse	19	10	3	6	+10	33
6	Willem II	18	10	3	5	+5	33
7	Utrecht	19	9	3	7	+8	30
8	Heerenveen	19	7	7	5	+5	28
9	Heracles	18	7	5	6	+5	26
10	Groningen	19	7	5	7	+3	26
11	Sparta Rotterdam	18	6	5	7	-3	23
12	Twente	19	5	5	9	-11	20
13	For Sittard	19	5	4	10	-21	19
14	FC Emmen	18	5	3	10	-14	18
15	Zwolle	19	5	2	12	-17	17
16	VVV Venlo	18	5	0	13	-27	15
17	Den Haag	18	3	4	11	-18	13
18	Waalwijk	18	3	2	13	-21	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	9	8	0	1	+29	24
2	PSV Eindhoven	9	7	1	1	+17	22
3	AZ Alkmaar	9	7	1	1	+16	22
4	Feyenoord	10	6	3	1	+8	21
5	Sparta Rotterdam	9	5	2	2	+9	17
6	Vitesse	9	5	2	2	+7	17
7	FC Emmen	9	5	2	2	+6	17
8	Willem II	9	5	2	2	+5	17
9	For Sittard	10	5	2	3	+4	17
10	Heracles	9	5	1	3	+10	16
11	Groningen	9	5	1	3	+7	16
12	Utrecht	9	5	0	4	+9	15
13	Heerenveen	10	3	6	1	+2	15
14	Twente	10	3	3	4	-2	12
15	VVV Venlo	9	4	0	5	-8	12
16	Zwolle	9	3	2	4	-3	11
17	Den Haag	9	1	4	4	-5	7
18	Waalwijk	9	2	1	6	-6	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	9	6	2	1	+13	20
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	6	1	2	+12	19
3	Vitesse	10	5	1	4	+3	16
4	Willem II	9	5	1	3	+0	16
5	Utrecht	10	4	3	3	-1	15
6	Heerenveen	9	4	1	4	+3	13
7	Feyenoord	9	3	4	2	-1	13
8	PSV Eindhoven	9	3	3	3	+2	12
9	Groningen	10	2	4	4	-4	10
10	Heracles	9	2	4	3	-5	10
11	Twente	9	2	2	5	-9	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	9	1	3	5	-12	6
13	Den Haag	9	2	0	7	-13	6
14	Zwolle	10	2	0	8	-14	6
15	Waalwijk	9	1	1	7	-15	4
16	VVV Venlo	9	1	0	8	-19	3
17	For Sittard	9	0	2	7	-25	2
18	FC Emmen	9	0	1	8	-20	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.