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League Cup

Referee: John Brooks

Brentford

T S S T U

1–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

T U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,7

1,3

Scored

1,3

0,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

46% Possession 54%

10 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 3

8 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Grimsby	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.5	7
2	Doncaster	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.1	6
3	Bradford	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.7	6
4	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
5	Cambridge United	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.1	6
6	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.8	6
7	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.8	6
8	Reading	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.3	6
9	Millwall	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.5	6
10	Port Vale	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
11	Wigan	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
12	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
13	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.6	4
14	Wrexham	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.8	4
15	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.5	4
16	Plymouth	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.0	4
17	Wycombe	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
18	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+6	–	3
19	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
20	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
21	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
22	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
23	Stockport County	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
24	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
25	Charlton	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.8	3
26	Preston	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
27	Mansfield Town	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
28	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
29	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
30	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
31	Cheltenham	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.5	3
32	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.9	3
33	Oxford	2	1	0	1	-5	+0.2	3
34	Huddersfield	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.1	2
35	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
36	Sheffield Weds	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
37	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
38	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
39	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
40	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
41	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
42	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
43	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
44	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
45	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
46	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
47	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
48	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
49	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
50	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
51	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
52	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
53	Newport County	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
54	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
55	Burton Albion	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
56	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
57	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
58	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
59	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
60	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
61	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
62	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
63	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
64	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
65	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
66	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
67	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
68	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
69	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
70	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
71	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
72	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
73	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
74	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
75	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
76	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
77	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
78	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
79	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
80	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
81	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
82	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
83	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
2	Wigan	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
3	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
4	Grimsby	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.5	4
5	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.6	4
6	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.5	4
7	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
8	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
9	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
10	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
11	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
12	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
13	Cheltenham	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
14	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
15	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
16	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
17	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
18	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
19	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
20	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
21	Oxford	2	1	0	1	-5	+0.2	3
22	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
23	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
24	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
25	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
26	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
27	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
28	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
31	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
32	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
33	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
34	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
35	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
36	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
37	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
38	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
39	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
40	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
41	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
42	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
43	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
44	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
45	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
46	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
47	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
48	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
49	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Doncaster	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.1	6
2	Bradford	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.7	6
3	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.8	6
4	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.8	6
5	Port Vale	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
6	Wycombe	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
7	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+6	–	3
8	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
9	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
10	Wrexham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
11	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
12	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
13	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
14	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
15	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
16	Mansfield Town	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
17	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
18	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
19	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
20	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
21	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
22	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
23	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
24	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
25	Plymouth	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
26	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
27	Burton Albion	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
29	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
30	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
31	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
32	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
33	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
34	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
35	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
36	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
37	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
38	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
39	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
40	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
42	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
43	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
44	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
45	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
46	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
47	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
48	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
49	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
50	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
51	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.