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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Burnley

T S T T S

3–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,3

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 18/17 matches

Win Ø 41%

28%

53%

Points per game

1,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

28%

59%

Both score Ø 29%

22%

35%

Average goals

1,8

2,9

Scored

0,6

1,8

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

38% Possession 62%

10 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 10

2 Blocked shots 3

8 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 4

3 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 15. · Aston Villa 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	19	12	5	2	+23	41
2	Man United	19	12	4	3	+11	40
3	Leicester	19	12	2	5	+14	38
4	West Ham	20	10	5	5	+6	35
5	Liverpool	19	9	7	3	+15	34
6	Tottenham	18	9	6	3	+16	33
7	Everton	17	10	2	5	+7	32
8	Arsenal	20	9	3	8	+6	30
9	Aston Villa	17	9	2	6	+13	29
10	Chelsea	19	8	5	6	+10	29
11	Southampton	19	8	5	6	+3	29
12	Leeds	19	8	2	9	-3	26
13	Crystal Palace	20	6	5	9	-12	23
14	Wolves	19	6	4	9	-8	22
15	Burnley	18	5	4	9	-12	19
16	Newcastle	20	5	4	11	-15	19
17	Brighton	19	3	8	8	-7	17
18	Fulham	18	2	6	10	-12	12
19	West Brom	20	2	5	13	-33	11
20	Sheffield United	19	1	2	16	-22	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	7	2	1	+14	23
2	Liverpool	10	7	2	1	+12	23
3	West Ham	10	5	3	2	+4	18
4	Southampton	10	5	1	4	+3	16
5	Leicester	10	5	1	4	+3	16
6	Chelsea	9	4	3	2	+8	15
7	Tottenham	9	4	3	2	+5	15
8	Arsenal	10	4	2	4	+1	14
9	Man United	9	4	2	3	-1	14
10	Aston Villa	8	4	1	3	+6	13
11	Everton	8	4	1	3	+3	13
12	Wolves	10	3	3	4	-1	12
13	Crystal Palace	10	3	3	4	-5	12
14	Leeds	9	3	2	4	-1	11
15	Newcastle	10	3	2	5	-6	11
16	Burnley	8	3	1	4	-3	10
17	Fulham	10	1	3	6	-8	6
18	Brighton	9	0	5	4	-5	5
19	West Brom	10	1	2	7	-24	5
20	Sheffield United	10	1	1	8	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	10	8	2	0	+12	26
2	Leicester	9	7	1	1	+11	22
3	Everton	9	6	1	2	+4	19
4	Tottenham	9	5	3	1	+11	18
5	Man City	9	5	3	1	+9	18
6	West Ham	10	5	2	3	+2	17
7	Aston Villa	9	5	1	3	+7	16
8	Arsenal	10	5	1	4	+5	16
9	Leeds	10	5	0	5	-2	15
10	Chelsea	10	4	2	4	+2	14
11	Southampton	9	3	4	2	+0	13
12	Brighton	10	3	3	4	-2	12
13	Liverpool	9	2	5	2	+3	11
14	Crystal Palace	10	3	2	5	-7	11
15	Wolves	9	3	1	5	-7	10
16	Burnley	10	2	3	5	-9	9
17	Newcastle	10	2	2	6	-9	8
18	Fulham	8	1	3	4	-4	6
19	West Brom	10	1	3	6	-9	6
20	Sheffield United	9	0	1	8	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.