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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Aston Villa

U S S T U

1–1

Full-time

Burnley

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 28%

36%

19%

Points per game

1,2

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

58%

36%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

44%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

71% Possession 29%

22 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 8

13 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 20

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Aston Villa 14. · Burnley 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	37	28	6	3	+72	90
2	Liverpool	37	27	8	2	+66	89
3	Chelsea	36	20	10	6	+42	70
4	Tottenham	37	21	5	11	+24	68
5	Arsenal	37	21	3	13	+9	66
6	Man United	37	16	10	11	+1	58
7	West Ham	37	16	8	13	+11	56
8	Wolves	37	15	6	16	-3	51
9	Leicester	36	13	9	14	+0	48
10	Brighton	37	11	15	11	-4	48
11	Brentford	37	13	7	17	-7	46
12	Newcastle	37	12	10	15	-19	46
13	Crystal Palace	37	10	15	12	+3	45
14	Aston Villa	36	13	5	18	-1	44
15	Southampton	37	9	13	15	-21	40
16	Everton	37	11	6	20	-19	39
17	Leeds	37	8	11	18	-38	35
18	Burnley	36	7	13	16	-18	34
19	Watford	37	6	5	26	-42	23
20	Norwich	37	5	7	25	-56	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	14	4	0	+38	46
2	Man City	18	14	2	2	+42	44
3	Tottenham	19	13	1	5	+19	40
4	Arsenal	18	12	2	4	+14	38
5	Man United	19	10	5	4	+10	35
6	West Ham	19	9	5	5	+7	32
7	Leicester	18	9	4	5	+8	31
8	Chelsea	17	8	6	3	+14	30
9	Newcastle	19	8	6	5	-1	30
10	Everton	19	9	2	8	+2	29
11	Crystal Palace	18	6	8	4	+9	26
12	Southampton	19	6	7	6	-1	25
13	Brentford	18	7	3	8	+2	24
14	Wolves	19	7	3	9	-5	24
15	Aston Villa	18	6	4	8	+0	22
16	Burnley	18	5	6	7	-6	21
17	Brighton	18	4	7	7	-6	19
18	Leeds	19	4	6	9	-19	18
19	Norwich	18	3	3	12	-26	12
20	Watford	19	2	2	15	-29	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	19	14	4	1	+30	46
2	Liverpool	19	13	4	2	+28	43
3	Chelsea	19	12	4	3	+28	40
4	Brighton	19	7	8	4	+2	29
5	Tottenham	18	8	4	6	+5	28
6	Arsenal	19	9	1	9	-5	28
7	Wolves	18	8	3	7	+2	27
8	West Ham	18	7	3	8	+4	24
9	Man United	18	6	5	7	-9	23
10	Aston Villa	18	7	1	10	-1	22
11	Brentford	19	6	4	9	-9	22
12	Crystal Palace	19	4	7	8	-6	19
13	Leicester	18	4	5	9	-8	17
14	Leeds	18	4	5	9	-19	17
15	Newcastle	18	4	4	10	-18	16
16	Watford	18	4	3	11	-13	15
17	Southampton	18	3	6	9	-20	15
18	Burnley	18	2	7	9	-12	13
19	Everton	18	2	4	12	-21	10
20	Norwich	19	2	4	13	-30	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.