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Ligue 1

Referee: Bastien Dechepy

Monaco

U S S T S

1–4

Full-time

Lens

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monaco Lens

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 60%

55%

64%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

64%

Both score Ø 59%

73%

45%

Average goals

3,6

2,5

Scored

2,1

1,5

Conceded

1,5

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

2,83 xG 3,16

50% Possession 50%

16 Shots 20

6 Shots on target 12

4 Blocked shots 5

7 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monaco 5. · Lens 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	12	8	1	3	+17	+10.4	25
2	Paris SG	11	7	3	1	+12	+8.7	24
3	Lens	11	7	1	3	+7	+2.8	22
4	Lille	11	6	2	3	+10	+7.8	20
5	Monaco	11	6	2	3	+6	+7.6	20
6	Lyon	11	6	2	3	+4	+7.0	20
7	Strasbourg	11	6	1	4	+6	+7.8	19
8	Rennes	12	4	6	2	+2	-2.6	18
9	Nice	11	5	2	4	+0	-7.6	17
10	Toulouse	11	4	3	4	+2	+0.4	15
11	Paris FC	12	4	2	6	-3	-1.3	14
12	Le Havre	12	3	5	4	-4	+0.5	14
13	Brest	12	2	4	6	-7	-1.6	10
14	Nantes	12	2	4	6	-7	-11.5	10
15	Angers	11	2	4	5	-7	-10.5	10
16	Lorient	11	2	3	6	-12	-2.3	9
17	Metz	11	2	2	7	-16	-9.6	8
18	Auxerre	11	2	1	8	-10	-6.1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	6	5	1	0	+15	+11.0	16
2	Lens	6	5	0	1	+9	+7.0	15
3	Lille	6	4	1	1	+7	+6.5	13
4	Monaco	6	4	1	1	+6	+6.8	13
5	Paris SG	5	4	1	0	+6	+4.9	13
6	Nice	6	4	1	1	+5	-1.3	13
7	Strasbourg	5	4	0	1	+9	+9.4	12
8	Lyon	5	4	0	1	+5	+6.3	12
9	Rennes	6	3	2	1	+5	+2.7	11
10	Toulouse	6	2	3	1	+3	+2.8	9
11	Le Havre	6	2	3	1	+2	+5.8	9
12	Angers	5	2	2	1	+1	-2.4	8
13	Lorient	5	2	2	1	+0	+0.4	8
14	Paris FC	6	2	1	3	+0	+1.5	7
15	Brest	6	1	3	2	-1	+3.3	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-2	-0.6	6
17	Metz	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.1	5
18	Nantes	6	1	1	4	-6	-6.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	3	2	1	+6	+3.8	11
2	Marseille	6	3	0	3	+2	-0.6	9
3	Lyon	6	2	2	2	-1	+0.7	8
4	Lille	5	2	1	2	+3	+1.3	7
5	Monaco	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.8	7
6	Lens	5	2	1	2	-2	-4.3	7
7	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.7	7
8	Rennes	6	1	4	1	-3	-5.3	7
9	Paris FC	6	2	1	3	-3	-2.8	7
10	Nantes	6	1	3	2	-1	-5.4	6
11	Toulouse	5	2	0	3	-1	-2.4	6
12	Le Havre	6	1	2	3	-6	-5.3	5
13	Nice	5	1	1	3	-5	-6.3	4
14	Brest	6	1	1	4	-6	-4.9	4
15	Metz	6	1	0	5	-14	-8.5	3
16	Angers	6	0	2	4	-8	-8.1	2
17	Auxerre	5	0	1	4	-8	-5.4	1
18	Lorient	6	0	1	5	-12	-2.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.