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Ligue 1

Referee: B Bastien

Lens

U T T S S

1–3

Full-time

Nice

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lens Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 46%

48%

44%

Points per game

1,7

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

40%

24%

Both score Ø 34%

36%

32%

Average goals

2,3

1,7

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,22 xG 2,21

61% Possession 39%

20 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 3

10 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

11 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lens 5. · Nice 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	25	16	8	1	+35	+21.4	56
2	Brest	25	13	7	5	+16	+9.1	46
3	Monaco	25	13	6	6	+11	+5.3	45
4	Lille	25	11	9	5	+14	+12.8	42
5	Lens	25	12	6	7	+10	+3.5	42
6	Nice	25	11	7	7	+5	+9.0	40
7	Marseille	25	10	9	6	+14	+18.6	39
8	Rennes	25	9	9	7	+7	+7.8	36
9	Reims	25	10	5	10	-2	+4.7	35
10	Lyon	26	10	4	12	-10	-6.3	34
11	Toulouse	26	7	8	11	-7	-8.1	29
12	Strasbourg	26	7	8	11	-11	-4.4	29
13	Montpellier	25	6	9	10	-5	-0.4	27
14	Le Havre	25	6	9	10	-6	-11.6	27
15	Lorient	25	6	7	12	-14	-12.6	25
16	Nantes	26	7	4	15	-17	-12.1	25
17	Metz	25	6	5	14	-15	-15.8	23
18	Clermont	25	3	8	14	-25	-20.8	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	13	8	5	0	+17	+15.8	29
2	Paris SG	13	8	4	1	+19	+14.3	28
3	Lille	12	8	3	1	+17	+16.5	27
4	Brest	12	7	4	1	+12	+11.6	25
5	Nice	13	7	4	2	+8	+8.3	25
6	Lens	12	7	2	3	+8	+6.8	23
7	Rennes	13	6	3	4	+8	+10.7	21
8	Monaco	12	6	2	4	+7	+5.9	20
9	Le Havre	12	5	2	5	+2	+3.0	17
10	Reims	12	5	2	5	-1	+4.8	17
11	Strasbourg	13	4	3	6	-4	-0.3	15
12	Lyon	13	4	3	6	-7	+0.2	15
13	Montpellier	13	2	8	3	+1	+6.5	14
14	Toulouse	13	3	5	5	+0	+4.1	14
15	Lorient	13	3	4	6	-4	-5.8	13
16	Nantes	14	3	3	8	-7	-4.3	12
17	Metz	12	2	3	7	-4	-1.7	9
18	Clermont	12	1	4	7	-13	-7.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	8	4	0	+16	+7.2	28
2	Monaco	13	7	4	2	+4	-0.7	25
3	Brest	13	6	3	4	+4	-2.5	21
4	Lens	13	5	4	4	+2	-3.3	19
5	Lyon	13	6	1	6	-3	-6.5	19
6	Reims	13	5	3	5	-1	-0.1	18
7	Rennes	12	3	6	3	-1	-2.9	15
8	Lille	13	3	6	4	-3	-3.7	15
9	Nice	12	4	3	5	-3	+0.7	15
10	Toulouse	13	4	3	6	-7	-12.2	15
11	Strasbourg	13	3	5	5	-7	-4.2	14
12	Metz	13	4	2	7	-11	-14.1	14
13	Montpellier	12	4	1	7	-6	-6.9	13
14	Nantes	12	4	1	7	-10	-7.8	13
15	Lorient	12	3	3	6	-10	-6.9	12
16	Marseille	12	2	4	6	-3	+2.8	10
17	Le Havre	13	1	7	5	-8	-14.6	10
18	Clermont	13	2	4	7	-12	-13.4	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.