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Ligue 1
Referee: T Léonard
Lille
T T S T S
3–1
Full-time
Auxerre
S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Auxerre
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,0
1,8
Scored
1,0
1,0
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 41%
48%
34%
Points per game
1,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 56%
52%
59%
Both score Ø 56%
59%
52%
Average goals
2,6
2,8
Scored
1,5
1,4
Conceded
1,1
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,4
-0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,04 xG 0,25
57% Possession 43%
15 Shots 7
9 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 6
8 Corners 4
2 Offside 2
8 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lille 6. · Auxerre 11.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 29 24 5 0 +55 +51.3 77
2 Marseille 30 17 4 9 +20 +14.0 55
3 Monaco 30 16 6 8 +22 +35.8 54
4 Lyon 29 15 6 8 +18 +11.3 51
5 Strasbourg 30 14 9 7 +11 -7.5 51
6 Lille 29 14 8 7 +13 +7.7 50
7 Nice 29 13 9 7 +17 +17.7 48
8 Brest 29 13 5 11 +1 -7.2 44
9 Lens 29 12 6 11 +0 +6.0 42
10 Rennes 30 12 2 16 +5 +5.8 38
11 Auxerre 29 10 8 11 -2 -12.1 38
12 Toulouse 29 9 7 13 +0 +11.2 34
13 Nantes 29 7 9 13 -15 -17.8 30
14 Angers 29 8 6 15 -18 -15.8 30
15 Reims 29 7 8 14 -11 -19.5 29
16 Le Havre 30 8 3 19 -31 -19.8 27
17 St Etienne 29 6 6 17 -36 -34.6 24
18 Montpellier 30 4 3 23 -49 -26.6 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,50
U
4,26
B
6,54
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,87
U2,5
1,95
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

T Léonard · 142 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.