Ligue 1
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Lille
Auxerre
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 2–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Paris SG
|
29 | 24 | 5 | 0 | +55 | +51.3 | 77 |
| 2 |
Marseille
|
30 | 17 | 4 | 9 | +20 | +14.0 | 55 |
| 3 |
Monaco
|
30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | +22 | +35.8 | 54 |
| 4 |
Lyon
|
29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | +18 | +11.3 | 51 |
| 5 |
Strasbourg
|
30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | -7.5 | 51 |
| 6 |
Lille
|
29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | +13 | +7.7 | 50 |
| 7 |
Nice
|
29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | +17 | +17.7 | 48 |
| 8 |
Brest
|
29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | +1 | -7.2 | 44 |
| 9 |
Lens
|
29 | 12 | 6 | 11 | +0 | +6.0 | 42 |
| 10 |
Rennes
|
30 | 12 | 2 | 16 | +5 | +5.8 | 38 |
| 11 |
Auxerre
|
29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | -2 | -12.1 | 38 |
| 12 |
Toulouse
|
29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | +0 | +11.2 | 34 |
| 13 |
Nantes
|
29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | -15 | -17.8 | 30 |
| 14 |
Angers
|
29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | -18 | -15.8 | 30 |
| 15 |
Reims
|
29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | -11 | -19.5 | 29 |
| 16 |
Le Havre
|
30 | 8 | 3 | 19 | -31 | -19.8 | 27 |
| 17 |
St Etienne
|
29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | -36 | -34.6 | 24 |
| 18 |
Montpellier
|
30 | 4 | 3 | 23 | -49 | -26.6 | 15 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Toulouse
Lille
Lyon
Lille
Lille
Lens
Nantes
Lille
Lille
Dortmund
T Léonard · 142 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.