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Ligue 1

Referee: J Stinat

Toulouse

S S S T S

3–1

Full-time

Rennes

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Rennes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

2,2

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 46%

36%

55%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

68%

73%

Both score Ø 69%

64%

73%

Average goals

3,4

3,0

Scored

1,6

1,9

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,07 xG 1,42

31% Possession 69%

13 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 7

3 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 12. · Rennes 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	23	17	3	3	+35	+2.1	54
2	Marseille	23	15	4	4	+25	+3.1	49
3	Monaco	23	14	5	4	+21	+3.0	47
4	Lens	22	13	7	2	+18	+0.9	46
5	Rennes	22	12	4	6	+16	+1.1	40
6	Lille	22	11	5	6	+11	+1.0	38
7	Nice	23	10	7	6	+9	+0.5	37
8	Lorient	22	10	6	6	+1	-3.8	36
9	Lyon	22	9	5	8	+9	+2.0	32
10	Reims	22	6	12	4	+0	+4.1	30
11	Clermont	23	8	6	9	-7	-2.1	30
12	Toulouse	22	8	5	9	-2	+0.2	29
13	Nantes	22	5	10	7	-3	-1.0	25
14	Brest	22	4	8	10	-11	-2.0	20
15	Montpellier	22	6	2	14	-14	-5.0	20
16	Troyes	22	4	7	11	-15	-2.6	19
17	Strasbourg	22	3	9	10	-12	-1.2	18
18	Ajaccio	23	5	3	15	-24	+0.3	18
19	Auxerre	22	3	5	14	-28	+1.6	14
20	Angers	22	2	3	17	-29	-2.3	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rennes	12	10	0	2	+18	+0.5	30
2	Lens	11	10	0	1	+14	-1.6	30
3	Paris SG	11	9	2	0	+16	+0.2	29
4	Monaco	12	7	2	3	+10	+1.9	23
5	Marseille	12	7	2	3	+10	+0.8	23
6	Lille	11	6	3	2	+4	+0.1	21
7	Toulouse	11	5	4	2	+4	+1.1	19
8	Lyon	11	5	3	3	+8	+2.0	18
9	Nice	11	5	3	3	+6	-0.1	18
10	Lorient	11	5	3	3	+2	-0.2	18
11	Reims	10	4	4	2	+1	+3.6	16
12	Nantes	10	3	5	2	+1	-0.4	14
13	Clermont	12	4	2	6	-10	-2.0	14
14	Brest	11	2	5	4	-6	-0.0	11
15	Troyes	11	1	7	3	-5	-1.5	10
16	Montpellier	11	3	1	7	-8	-3.9	10
17	Auxerre	11	2	4	5	-10	+1.4	10
18	Strasbourg	12	1	6	5	-6	-0.2	9
19	Ajaccio	11	2	1	8	-11	-0.5	7
20	Angers	11	1	1	9	-12	-1.0	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	11	8	2	1	+15	+2.3	26
2	Paris SG	12	8	1	3	+19	+1.8	25
3	Monaco	11	7	3	1	+11	+1.1	24
4	Nice	12	5	4	3	+3	+0.6	19
5	Lorient	11	5	3	3	-1	-3.6	18
6	Lille	11	5	2	4	+7	+0.8	17
7	Lens	11	3	7	1	+4	+2.6	16
8	Clermont	11	4	4	3	+3	-0.1	16
9	Lyon	11	4	2	5	+1	+0.0	14
10	Reims	12	2	8	2	-1	+0.5	14
11	Nantes	12	2	5	5	-4	-0.6	11
12	Ajaccio	12	3	2	7	-13	+0.8	11
13	Rennes	10	2	4	4	-2	+0.6	10
14	Montpellier	11	3	1	7	-6	-1.1	10
15	Toulouse	11	3	1	7	-6	-0.9	10
16	Brest	11	2	3	6	-5	-2.0	9
17	Strasbourg	10	2	3	5	-6	-1.0	9
18	Troyes	11	3	0	8	-10	-1.1	9
19	Angers	11	1	2	8	-17	-1.3	5
20	Auxerre	11	1	1	9	-18	+0.1	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.