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Ligue 1

Referee: J Stinat

Paris SG

S U S T U

4–2

Full-time

Strasbourg

T U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Strasbourg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,5

4,0

Scored

1,5

2,2

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 50%

71%

29%

Points per game

2,4

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

71%

57%

Both score Ø 86%

86%

Average goals

3,9

3,7

Scored

3,0

2,0

Conceded

0,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,1

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,49 xG 1,96

56% Possession 44%

18 Shots 16

10 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 7

5 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 2. · Strasbourg 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	8	6	2	0	+10	+10.0	20
2	Paris SG	7	5	2	0	+15	+12.7	17
3	Marseille	7	4	2	1	+8	-1.2	14
4	Lille	8	4	2	2	+5	+3.3	14
5	Lens	8	3	5	0	+5	+4.9	14
6	Reims	7	4	2	1	+4	-1.7	14
7	Strasbourg	7	2	4	1	+2	+1.8	10
8	Lyon	7	3	1	3	-2	+1.6	10
9	Brest	8	3	1	4	-3	-6.2	10
10	Nice	7	2	3	2	+8	+3.9	9
11	Nantes	7	2	3	2	+1	-1.2	9
12	Rennes	8	2	2	4	+0	-0.2	8
13	St Etienne	8	2	1	5	-14	-9.4	7
14	Auxerre	7	2	0	5	-6	-5.1	6
15	Le Havre	7	2	0	5	-8	-4.6	6
16	Toulouse	7	1	2	4	-4	+4.6	5
17	Montpellier	7	1	1	5	-13	-8.3	4
18	Angers	7	0	3	4	-8	-4.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	5	3	2	0	+4	+5.1	11
2	Brest	5	3	1	1	+4	-0.5	10
3	Paris SG	3	3	0	0	+10	+6.7	9
4	Strasbourg	4	2	2	0	+3	+2.0	8
5	Rennes	4	2	1	1	+5	+1.9	7
6	Lille	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.9	7
7	Reims	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.2	7
8	Auxerre	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.1	6
9	Lyon	4	2	0	2	+0	+2.6	6
10	St Etienne	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.2	6
11	Nice	3	1	2	0	+8	+3.8	5
12	Marseille	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.0	5
13	Lens	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.4	5
14	Nantes	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.1	4
15	Montpellier	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.7	4
16	Toulouse	4	1	1	2	-1	+3.0	4
17	Le Havre	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.7	3
18	Angers	4	0	1	3	-6	-3.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	4	3	0	1	+6	-2.1	9
2	Monaco	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.0	9
3	Lens	5	2	3	0	+3	+1.4	9
4	Paris SG	4	2	2	0	+5	+6.1	8
5	Lille	4	2	1	1	+4	+4.2	7
6	Reims	3	2	1	0	+3	-1.5	7
7	Nantes	4	1	2	1	+0	-3.3	5
8	Nice	4	1	1	2	+0	+0.1	4
9	Lyon	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.0	4
10	Le Havre	4	1	0	3	-4	-0.9	3
11	Strasbourg	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.2	2
12	Angers	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.7	2
13	Toulouse	3	0	1	2	-3	+1.5	1
14	Rennes	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.1	1
15	St Etienne	4	0	1	3	-13	-9.7	1
16	Auxerre	4	0	0	4	-7	-5.2	0
17	Brest	3	0	0	3	-7	-5.8	0
18	Montpellier	4	0	0	4	-12	-9.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.