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Ligue 1

Referee: S Frappart

Le Havre

T T T T T

1–0

Full-time

Montpellier

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Le Havre Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,7

4,2

Scored

0,2

1,0

Conceded

2,5

3,2

Goal diff per game

-2,3

-2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 17%

22%

11%

Points per game

0,7

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 73%

56%

89%

Both score Ø 45%

33%

56%

Average goals

3,0

4,1

Scored

0,8

0,9

Conceded

2,2

3,2

Goal diff per game

-1,4

-2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,18 xG 1,01

48% Possession 52%

12 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 7

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 10

3 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Le Havre 17. · Montpellier 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	8	2	0	+21	+19.2	26
2	Monaco	10	6	2	2	+8	+9.8	20
3	Lille	10	5	3	2	+7	+4.4	18
4	Marseille	9	5	2	2	+10	-1.9	17
5	Nice	10	4	4	2	+10	+6.0	16
6	Lyon	10	4	3	3	+2	+3.9	15
7	Lens	10	3	5	2	+2	+2.2	14
8	Reims	10	4	2	4	+1	-4.0	14
9	Strasbourg	10	3	4	3	+0	-0.9	13
10	Brest	10	4	1	5	-3	-6.0	13
11	Toulouse	10	3	3	4	+0	+6.6	12
12	Rennes	9	3	2	4	+1	+1.0	11
13	Nantes	9	2	4	3	-1	-2.5	10
14	Auxerre	9	3	1	5	-5	-3.8	10
15	Angers	10	2	4	4	-5	-4.9	10
16	St Etienne	10	3	1	6	-14	-8.8	10
17	Le Havre	9	2	0	7	-13	-8.0	6
18	Montpellier	9	1	1	7	-21	-12.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	5	0	0	+13	+10.2	15
2	Strasbourg	5	3	2	0	+5	+3.0	11
3	Monaco	6	3	2	1	+3	+6.0	11
4	Rennes	5	3	1	1	+6	+3.1	10
5	Brest	6	3	1	2	+3	-1.0	10
6	Auxerre	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.9	9
7	St Etienne	5	3	0	2	+1	+2.4	9
8	Nice	4	2	2	0	+9	+5.0	8
9	Lille	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.4	8
10	Toulouse	6	2	2	2	+0	+3.4	8
11	Lyon	5	2	1	2	+0	+3.1	7
12	Reims	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.9	7
13	Nantes	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.8	5
14	Lens	4	1	2	1	+0	+2.8	5
15	Marseille	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.9	5
16	Angers	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.7	4
17	Montpellier	5	1	1	3	-9	-3.1	4
18	Le Havre	4	1	0	3	-8	-5.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	5	4	0	1	+11	+0.0	12
2	Paris SG	5	3	2	0	+8	+9.0	11
3	Lille	5	3	1	1	+6	+4.8	10
4	Monaco	4	3	0	1	+5	+3.8	9
5	Lens	6	2	3	1	+2	-0.6	9
6	Lyon	5	2	2	1	+2	+0.8	8
7	Nice	6	2	2	2	+1	+1.0	8
8	Reims	5	2	1	2	+1	-3.1	7
9	Angers	5	1	3	1	-1	-3.2	6
10	Nantes	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.3	5
11	Toulouse	4	1	1	2	+0	+3.2	4
12	Le Havre	5	1	0	4	-5	-2.1	3
13	Brest	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.1	3
14	Strasbourg	5	0	2	3	-5	-3.9	2
15	Rennes	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.1	1
16	Auxerre	5	0	1	4	-7	-5.7	1
17	St Etienne	5	0	1	4	-15	-11.1	1
18	Montpellier	4	0	0	4	-12	-9.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.