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Serie A

Referee: M Marcenaro

Verona

T S T T T

3–2

Full-time

Roma

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Verona Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,0

2,0

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

2,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 30%

30%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

80%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,1

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

2,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,08 xG 1,80

34% Possession 66%

7 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 2

1 Offside 7

16 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Verona 14. · Roma 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	11	8	1	2	+10	+7.4	25
2	Atalanta	11	7	1	3	+15	+10.7	22
3	Fiorentina	11	6	4	1	+13	+6.8	22
4	Juventus	11	5	6	0	+12	+8.1	21
5	Inter	10	6	3	1	+11	+6.3	21
6	Lazio	10	6	1	3	+9	+7.4	19
7	Milan	10	5	2	3	+6	+7.6	17
8	Udinese	11	5	1	5	-2	-6.2	16
9	Bologna	10	3	6	1	+1	+0.1	15
10	Torino	11	4	2	5	-1	-4.1	14
11	Roma	10	3	4	3	-1	-1.4	13
12	Empoli	10	2	5	3	-2	-6.5	11
13	Parma	10	1	6	3	-2	-1.3	9
14	Verona	10	3	0	7	-9	-5.6	9
15	Como	10	2	3	5	-9	-2.1	9
16	Cagliari	10	2	3	5	-9	-1.5	9
17	Monza	11	1	5	5	-4	-5.9	8
18	Venezia	10	2	2	6	-8	-4.3	8
19	Lecce	11	2	2	7	-16	-7.0	8
20	Genoa	10	1	3	6	-14	-8.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	6	5	0	1	+6	+6.2	15
2	Lazio	5	4	1	0	+7	+6.4	13
3	Atalanta	5	4	0	1	+11	+6.6	12
4	Udinese	6	4	0	2	+2	-2.3	12
5	Fiorentina	5	3	2	0	+6	+5.6	11
6	Inter	5	3	1	1	+6	+2.8	10
7	Milan	5	3	1	1	+6	+4.6	10
8	Juventus	6	2	4	0	+4	+5.0	10
9	Roma	5	3	0	2	+3	+0.9	9
10	Bologna	5	1	4	0	+1	+1.6	7
11	Torino	5	2	1	2	+0	-3.4	7
12	Lecce	5	2	1	2	-8	-1.6	7
13	Venezia	4	2	0	2	+0	+1.9	6
14	Verona	5	2	0	3	-3	-0.6	6
15	Parma	5	1	2	2	-1	+0.6	5
16	Como	4	1	2	1	-3	-0.3	5
17	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-7	+0.2	5
18	Monza	6	0	3	3	-3	-2.5	3
19	Empoli	5	0	3	2	-4	-2.1	3
20	Genoa	6	0	3	3	-6	-2.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	5	3	2	0	+8	+3.1	11
2	Fiorentina	6	3	2	1	+7	+1.1	11
3	Inter	5	3	2	0	+5	+3.6	11
4	Atalanta	6	3	1	2	+4	+4.0	10
5	Napoli	5	3	1	1	+4	+1.2	10
6	Empoli	5	2	2	1	+2	-4.3	8
7	Bologna	5	2	2	1	+0	-1.5	8
8	Milan	5	2	1	2	+0	+3.0	7
9	Torino	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.6	7
10	Lazio	5	2	0	3	+2	+1.0	6
11	Monza	5	1	2	2	-1	-3.3	5
12	Parma	5	0	4	1	-1	-1.9	4
13	Cagliari	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.8	4
14	Udinese	5	1	1	3	-4	-3.8	4
15	Roma	5	0	4	1	-4	-2.3	4
16	Como	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.9	4
17	Verona	5	1	0	4	-6	-5.0	3
18	Genoa	4	1	0	3	-8	-5.7	3
19	Venezia	6	0	2	4	-8	-6.2	2
20	Lecce	6	0	1	5	-8	-5.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.