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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Tottenham

T S S T S

4–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

U S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tottenham Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 50%

44%

56%

Points per game

1,4

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

56%

78%

Average goals

3,1

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,44 xG 1,86

51% Possession 49%

16 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 4

14 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tottenham 10. · Aston Villa 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	10	8	1	1	+13	+10.6	25
2	Man City	10	7	2	1	+10	+9.0	23
3	Nott'm Forest	10	5	4	1	+7	+4.3	19
4	Arsenal	10	5	3	2	+6	+5.1	18
5	Aston Villa	9	5	3	1	+5	+4.5	18
6	Chelsea	9	5	2	2	+8	+5.6	17
7	Brighton	10	4	4	2	+3	-1.9	16
8	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+1	+3.0	15
9	Newcastle	10	4	3	3	+0	+0.6	15
10	Tottenham	9	4	1	4	+8	+8.0	13
11	Brentford	9	4	1	4	+0	+0.3	13
12	Fulham	9	3	3	3	+0	+3.3	12
13	Man United	9	3	2	4	-3	-0.6	11
14	West Ham	10	3	2	5	-6	-2.7	11
15	Leicester	10	2	4	4	-4	-9.2	10
16	Everton	10	2	3	5	-7	-4.0	9
17	Crystal Palace	10	1	4	5	-5	-2.1	7
18	Ipswich	10	0	5	5	-11	-14.5	5
19	Southampton	10	1	1	8	-12	-10.3	4
20	Wolves	10	0	3	7	-13	-9.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	5	4	1	0	+6	+7.0	13
2	Man City	5	4	1	0	+6	+7.5	13
3	Liverpool	5	4	0	1	+6	+5.4	12
4	Arsenal	5	3	2	0	+6	+7.6	11
5	Bournemouth	5	3	1	1	+4	+4.0	10
6	Newcastle	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.1	10
7	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+8	+5.3	9
8	Brighton	5	2	3	0	+2	+1.9	9
9	Nott'm Forest	5	2	2	1	+3	+2.7	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	2	1	+1	+6.5	8
11	Aston Villa	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.3	8
12	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+1	+2.8	7
13	West Ham	5	2	0	3	-2	+0.6	6
14	Man United	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.6	6
15	Leicester	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.0	5
16	Crystal Palace	5	1	2	2	-2	-0.1	5
17	Everton	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.1	5
18	Southampton	5	1	1	3	-4	-4.9	4
19	Ipswich	5	0	3	2	-4	-3.4	3
20	Wolves	5	0	1	4	-7	-3.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+7	+5.2	13
2	Nott'm Forest	5	3	2	0	+4	+1.6	11
3	Man City	5	3	1	1	+4	+1.5	10
4	Aston Villa	4	3	1	0	+4	+0.2	10
5	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+7	-0.9	9
6	Brighton	5	2	1	2	+1	-3.9	7
7	Arsenal	5	2	1	2	+0	-2.5	7
8	Man United	5	1	2	2	+1	+1.0	5
9	Fulham	5	1	2	2	-1	+0.5	5
10	Leicester	5	1	2	2	-2	-5.2	5
11	Newcastle	5	1	2	2	-2	+0.5	5
12	Bournemouth	5	1	2	2	-3	-0.9	5
13	West Ham	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.3	5
14	Tottenham	5	1	1	3	+0	+2.7	4
15	Everton	5	1	1	3	-4	-0.9	4
16	Crystal Palace	5	0	2	3	-3	-2.0	2
17	Wolves	5	0	2	3	-6	-5.4	2
18	Ipswich	5	0	2	3	-7	-11.1	2
19	Brentford	4	0	0	4	-6	-6.7	0
20	Southampton	5	0	0	5	-8	-5.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.