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Champions League
Referee: A Taylor
Dortmund
T S S U T
1–0
Full-time
Paris SG
T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Paris SG
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,2
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 92%
83%
100%
Average goals
3,3
4,7
Scored
1,5
3,0
Conceded
1,8
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 10/10 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
30%
60%
Both score Ø 60%
50%
70%
Average goals
2,4
3,2
Scored
1,5
1,9
Conceded
0,9
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,6
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,78 xG 1,70
43% Possession 57%
13 Shots 14
4 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 3
1 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 6
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

13. Dec -23 Dortmund – Paris SG 1–1 19. Sep -23 Paris SG – Dortmund 2–0

Match report

Dortmund Paris SG
Ian Maatsen 🟨
19′
1–0 N. Füllkrug ⚽
N. Schlotterbeck
36′
42′
🔁 Beraldo
↦ L. Hernández
Half-time 1–0
53′
🟨 Fabián Ruiz
65′
🔁 R. Kolo Muani
↦ B. Barcola
Nico Schlotterbeck 🟨
73′
M. Reus 🔁
↦ K. Adeyemi
83′
F. Nmecha 🔁
↦ J. Brandt
87′
M. Wolf 🔁
↦ J. Ryerson
87′
Y. Moukoko 🔁
↦ N. Füllkrug
91′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Dortmund

4-2-3-1
1 G. Kobel G
26 J. Ryerson D
15 M. Hummels D
4 N. Schlotterbeck D
22 I. Maatsen D
20 M. Sabitzer M
23 E. Can M
10 J. Sancho M
19 J. Brandt M
27 K. Adeyemi M
14 N. Füllkrug F
Bench (12)
11 M. Reus
8 F. Nmecha
17 M. Wolf
18 Y. Moukoko
33 A. Meyer
43 J. Bynoe-Gittens
35 M. Lotka
25 N. Süle
6 S. Özcan
38 K. Wätjen
21 D. Malen
9 S. Haller

Coach: E. Terzić

Paris SG

4-3-3
99 G. Donnarumma G
2 A. Hakimi D
5 Marquinhos D
21 L. Hernández D
25 Nuno Mendes D
33 W. Zaïre-Emery M
17 Vitinha M
8 Fabián Ruiz M
10 O. Dembélé F
7 K. Mbappé F
29 B. Barcola F
Bench (12)
35 Beraldo
23 R. Kolo Muani
1 K. Navas
37 M. Škriniar
15 Danilo Pereira
19 Lee Kang-In
4 M. Ugarte
26 N. Mukiele
11 Marco Asensio
9 Gonçalo Ramos
28 Carlos Soler
80 Arnau Tenas

Coach: Luis Enrique

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

A Taylor · 215 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.