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Serie A

Referee: M Guida

Atalanta

S S U S S

2–1

Full-time

Roma

S U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 34/35 matches

Win Ø 51%

53%

49%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

65%

60%

Both score Ø 58%

53%

63%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,9

1,8

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,85 xG 1,21

58% Possession 42%

24 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 5. · Roma 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	36	29	5	2	+67	+46.1	92
2	Milan	36	22	8	6	+29	+18.3	74
3	Bologna	36	18	13	5	+24	+11.1	67
4	Juventus	36	18	13	5	+21	+26.0	67
5	Atalanta	34	18	6	10	+25	+12.9	60
6	Roma	35	17	9	9	+20	+12.3	60
7	Lazio	36	18	5	13	+10	+5.0	59
8	Napoli	36	13	12	11	+7	+21.4	51
9	Fiorentina	34	14	8	12	+12	+3.3	50
10	Torino	36	12	14	10	+1	+3.3	50
11	Genoa	36	11	13	12	-1	-7.3	46
12	Monza	35	11	12	12	-8	-13.5	45
13	Lecce	35	8	13	14	-18	-8.4	37
14	Verona	36	8	10	18	-14	-11.8	34
15	Cagliari	36	7	12	17	-27	-12.9	33
16	Frosinone	36	7	11	18	-25	-14.5	32
17	Empoli	36	8	8	20	-26	-18.0	32
18	Udinese	35	4	18	13	-19	-11.0	30
19	Sassuolo	36	7	8	21	-30	-20.5	29
20	Salernitana	36	2	10	24	-48	-41.9	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	14	3	1	+33	+27.6	45
2	Bologna	18	12	4	2	+21	+9.1	40
3	Milan	18	12	3	3	+21	+12.0	39
4	Roma	18	11	4	3	+18	+12.2	37
5	Juventus	18	10	7	1	+13	+19.3	37
6	Atalanta	16	11	2	3	+23	+13.6	35
7	Lazio	18	10	3	5	+9	+9.0	33
8	Fiorentina	17	9	4	4	+14	+9.1	31
9	Torino	18	7	9	2	+7	+8.3	30
10	Genoa	18	7	6	5	+3	-2.1	27
11	Frosinone	18	7	4	7	-3	-3.7	25
12	Cagliari	18	6	7	5	-3	+4.9	25
13	Monza	18	6	6	6	-2	-5.3	24
14	Napoli	18	6	6	6	-3	+12.4	24
15	Lecce	17	6	6	5	-6	+0.4	24
16	Verona	18	6	5	7	-3	-4.3	23
17	Sassuolo	18	5	5	8	-9	-9.6	20
18	Empoli	18	4	5	9	-9	-6.5	17
19	Udinese	18	1	10	7	-8	-2.1	13
20	Salernitana	18	1	5	12	-20	-15.8	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	15	2	1	+34	+18.5	47
2	Milan	18	10	5	3	+8	+6.3	35
3	Juventus	18	8	6	4	+8	+6.6	30
4	Napoli	18	7	6	5	+10	+9.0	27
5	Bologna	18	6	9	3	+3	+2.0	27
6	Lazio	18	8	2	8	+1	-4.0	26
7	Atalanta	18	7	4	7	+2	-0.7	25
8	Roma	17	6	5	6	+2	+0.1	23
9	Monza	17	5	6	6	-6	-8.3	21
10	Torino	18	5	5	8	-6	-5.0	20
11	Fiorentina	17	5	4	8	-2	-5.8	19
12	Genoa	18	4	7	7	-4	-5.2	19
13	Udinese	17	3	8	6	-11	-8.9	17
14	Empoli	18	4	3	11	-17	-11.5	15
15	Lecce	18	2	7	9	-12	-8.8	13
16	Verona	18	2	5	11	-11	-7.5	11
17	Sassuolo	18	2	3	13	-21	-10.8	9
18	Cagliari	18	1	5	12	-24	-17.8	8
19	Salernitana	18	1	5	12	-28	-26.1	8
20	Frosinone	18	0	7	11	-22	-10.8	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.