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La Liga

Referee: Jorge Figueroa Vazquez

Ath Madrid

S T T S S

1–0

Full-time

Celta

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 43%

62%

24%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

62%

53%

Both score Ø 53%

50%

56%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,9

1,2

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,48 xG 0,47

56% Possession 44%

21 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

4 Corners 7

4 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 4. · Celta 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	35	28	6	1	+56	+34.3	90
2	Girona	35	23	6	6	+31	+12.5	75
3	Barcelona	34	22	7	5	+27	+35.1	73
4	Ath Madrid	34	21	4	9	+24	+20.0	67
5	Ath Bilbao	35	17	11	7	+22	+10.9	62
6	Sociedad	34	14	12	8	+13	+7.4	54
7	Betis	34	13	13	8	+4	-5.1	52
8	Villarreal	35	13	9	13	-1	-3.1	48
9	Valencia	34	13	8	13	-2	-5.6	47
10	Getafe	35	10	13	12	-7	-5.9	43
11	Alaves	35	11	9	15	-6	+0.7	42
12	Sevilla	35	10	11	14	-2	-9.9	41
13	Osasuna	35	11	7	17	-14	-8.1	40
14	Las Palmas	35	10	7	18	-14	-22.7	37
15	Mallorca	35	7	14	14	-12	-6.7	35
16	Celta	34	8	10	16	-12	-3.4	34
17	Vallecano	34	7	13	14	-16	-3.2	34
18	Cadiz	35	5	14	16	-25	-15.5	29
19	Granada	35	4	9	22	-32	-18.4	21
20	Almeria	34	2	11	21	-34	-13.3	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	17	15	2	0	+34	+24.4	47
2	Ath Madrid	17	15	1	1	+22	+17.5	46
3	Girona	17	14	2	1	+27	+10.9	44
4	Barcelona	17	13	1	3	+17	+19.6	40
5	Ath Bilbao	18	11	6	1	+22	+15.8	39
6	Betis	17	8	7	2	+9	+7.3	31
7	Valencia	17	8	5	4	+8	+3.7	29
8	Getafe	17	8	5	4	+2	+3.3	29
9	Alaves	18	8	4	6	+3	+6.5	28
10	Sociedad	17	7	6	4	+7	+4.1	27
11	Villarreal	18	7	4	7	+4	+7.1	25
12	Mallorca	18	6	7	5	+1	-1.2	25
13	Sevilla	17	6	5	6	+2	-1.1	23
14	Cadiz	18	5	8	5	-3	+4.6	23
15	Las Palmas	17	6	4	7	+0	-6.5	22
16	Osasuna	17	6	3	8	-7	+0.5	21
17	Celta	17	5	5	7	-3	+11.1	20
18	Granada	18	4	6	8	-7	-2.0	18
19	Vallecano	17	3	8	6	-8	-1.2	17
20	Almeria	17	0	8	9	-17	+0.1	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	18	13	4	1	+22	+9.9	43
2	Barcelona	17	9	6	2	+10	+15.4	33
3	Girona	18	9	4	5	+4	+1.6	31
4	Sociedad	17	7	6	4	+6	+3.3	27
5	Ath Bilbao	17	6	5	6	+0	-4.9	23
6	Villarreal	17	6	5	6	-5	-10.2	23
7	Ath Madrid	17	6	3	8	+2	+2.5	21
8	Betis	17	5	6	6	-5	-12.4	21
9	Osasuna	18	5	4	9	-7	-8.6	19
10	Sevilla	18	4	6	8	-4	-8.9	18
11	Valencia	17	5	3	9	-10	-9.3	18
12	Vallecano	17	4	5	8	-8	-2.0	17
13	Las Palmas	18	4	3	11	-14	-16.2	15
14	Celta	17	3	5	9	-9	-14.4	14
15	Getafe	18	2	8	8	-9	-9.2	14
16	Alaves	17	3	5	9	-9	-5.8	14
17	Mallorca	17	1	7	9	-13	-5.5	10
18	Almeria	17	2	3	12	-17	-13.4	9
19	Cadiz	17	0	6	11	-22	-20.0	6
20	Granada	17	0	3	14	-25	-16.4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.