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Ekstraklasa

Referee: D Stefanski

Puszcza

U S S U T

1–0

Full-time

Warta Poznan

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Puszcza Warta Poznan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

1,5

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 26%

23%

29%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

42%

35%

Both score Ø 54%

65%

42%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,1

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,99 xG 1,09

38% Possession 62%

21 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

11 Corners 7

3 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Puszcza 15. · Warta Poznan 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	32	17	8	7	+29	+15.4	59
2	Slask Wroclaw	32	16	9	7	+16	+7.0	57
3	Rakow	32	14	10	8	+18	+22.5	52
4	Lech Poznan	31	14	10	7	+8	-5.7	52
5	Gornik Zabrze	32	15	7	10	+5	-7.1	52
6	Pogon Szczecin	32	15	6	11	+20	+12.9	51
7	Legia	31	13	11	7	+9	+9.3	50
8	Piast Gliwice	32	9	15	8	+4	+16.2	42
9	Widzew Lodz	31	12	6	13	-1	-3.3	42
10	Stal Mielec	32	11	9	12	-5	-14.3	42
11	Zaglebie	31	11	8	12	-9	+2.6	41
12	Radomiak Radom	31	10	8	13	-11	-4.3	38
13	Warta Poznan	31	9	10	12	-5	-9.0	37
14	Cracovia	32	7	15	10	-1	-1.3	36
15	Puszcza	31	7	12	12	-12	-16.1	33
16	Korona Kielce	32	6	14	12	-7	-1.2	32
17	Ruch Chorzow	31	4	14	13	-17	-6.0	26
18	LKS Lodz	32	5	6	21	-41	-17.6	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	16	11	3	2	+27	+14.5	36
2	Rakow	16	10	5	1	+23	+15.0	35
3	Lech Poznan	15	9	4	2	+15	+1.5	31
4	Gornik Zabrze	16	9	4	3	+9	-2.9	31
5	Stal Mielec	16	8	5	3	+8	-2.7	29
6	Slask Wroclaw	16	8	4	4	+11	+10.6	28
7	Piast Gliwice	16	7	6	3	+10	+15.2	27
8	Legia	16	7	6	3	+8	+8.5	27
9	Widzew Lodz	15	9	0	6	+2	+3.7	27
10	Pogon Szczecin	16	8	2	6	+9	+15.9	26
11	Korona Kielce	16	5	8	3	+6	+9.1	23
12	Puszcza	15	5	8	2	+1	-2.1	23
13	Zaglebie	16	6	5	5	+0	+1.3	23
14	Warta Poznan	16	5	5	6	+0	-2.7	20
15	Cracovia	16	4	7	5	+5	+1.8	19
16	Radomiak Radom	15	4	5	6	-4	+1.2	17
17	LKS Lodz	16	4	5	7	-11	-8.7	17
18	Ruch Chorzow	16	3	7	6	-3	+2.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	16	8	5	3	+5	-3.6	29
2	Pogon Szczecin	16	7	4	5	+11	-2.9	25
3	Jagiellonia	16	6	5	5	+2	+0.9	23
4	Legia	15	6	5	4	+1	+0.8	23
5	Gornik Zabrze	16	6	3	7	-4	-4.3	21
6	Radomiak Radom	16	6	3	7	-7	-5.5	21
7	Lech Poznan	16	5	6	5	-7	-7.2	21
8	Zaglebie	15	5	3	7	-9	+1.3	18
9	Rakow	16	4	5	7	-5	+7.4	17
10	Warta Poznan	15	4	5	6	-5	-6.4	17
11	Cracovia	16	3	8	5	-6	-3.1	17
12	Widzew Lodz	16	3	6	7	-3	-7.0	15
13	Piast Gliwice	16	2	9	5	-6	+1.0	15
14	Stal Mielec	16	3	4	9	-13	-11.6	13
15	Puszcza	16	2	4	10	-13	-14.0	10
16	Ruch Chorzow	15	1	7	7	-14	-8.5	10
17	Korona Kielce	16	1	6	9	-13	-10.2	9
18	LKS Lodz	16	1	1	14	-30	-8.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.