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Champions League
Referee: D Orsato
Paris SG
S S S U T
0–1
Full-time
Dortmund
S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Dortmund
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
4,5
3,8
Scored
2,8
2,3
Conceded
1,7
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 50%
45%
55%
Points per game
1,5
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 41%
55%
27%
Both score Ø 55%
64%
45%
Average goals
3,0
2,3
Scored
1,7
1,5
Conceded
1,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

3,25 xG 0,74
70% Possession 30%
30 Shots 7
5 Shots on target 3
10 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 5
12 Corners 4
0 Offside 2
8 Free kicks against 6
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

1. May -24 Dortmund – Paris SG 1–0 13. Dec -23 Dortmund – Paris SG 1–1 19. Sep -23 Paris SG – Dortmund 2–0

Match report

Paris SG Dortmund
Half-time 0–1
50′
⚽ M. Hummels 0–1
J. Brandt
56′
🔁 M. Reus
↦ K. Adeyemi
Marco Asensio 🔁
↦ Fabián Ruiz
63′
B. Barcola 🔁
↦ Gonçalo Ramos
63′
64′
🟨 Marcel Sabitzer
65′
🟨 Mats Hummels
67′
🔁 N. Süle
↦ J. Sancho
Ousmane Dembélé 🟨
75′
Lee Kang-In 🔁
↦ W. Zaïre-Emery
76′
Achraf Hakimi 🟨
84′
85′
🔁 F. Nmecha
↦ J. Brandt
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Paris SG

4-3-3
99 G. Donnarumma G
2 A. Hakimi D
5 Marquinhos D
35 Beraldo D
25 Nuno Mendes D
33 W. Zaïre-Emery M
17 Vitinha M
8 Fabián Ruiz M
10 O. Dembélé F
9 Gonçalo Ramos F
7 K. Mbappé F
Bench (12)
11 Marco Asensio
29 B. Barcola
19 Lee Kang-In
80 Arnau Tenas
1 K. Navas
23 R. Kolo Muani
15 Danilo Pereira
42 Y. Zague
37 M. Škriniar
28 Carlos Soler
4 M. Ugarte
26 N. Mukiele

Coach: Luis Enrique

Dortmund

4-2-3-1
1 G. Kobel G
26 J. Ryerson D
15 M. Hummels D
4 N. Schlotterbeck D
22 I. Maatsen D
20 M. Sabitzer M
23 E. Can M
10 J. Sancho M
19 J. Brandt M
27 K. Adeyemi M
14 N. Füllkrug F
Bench (12)
11 M. Reus
25 N. Süle
8 F. Nmecha
18 Y. Moukoko
21 D. Malen
6 S. Özcan
17 M. Wolf
38 K. Wätjen
35 M. Lotka
43 J. Bynoe-Gittens
9 S. Haller
33 A. Meyer

Coach: E. Terzić

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Orsato · 98 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.