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Serie A

Referee: L Marinelli

Verona

T T T T S

0–1

Full-time

Milan

S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Verona Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,2

3,5

Scored

1,3

2,5

Conceded

2,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 16/15 matches

Win Ø 36%

31%

40%

Points per game

0,9

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

81%

67%

Both score Ø 52%

56%

47%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,6

Conceded

2,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,68 xG 0,81

35% Possession 65%

10 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 7

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 8

0 Offside 2

21 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Verona 17. · Milan 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	16	12	1	3	+22	+15.1	37
2	Napoli	16	11	2	3	+13	+9.7	35
3	Inter	15	10	4	1	+25	+14.4	34
4	Fiorentina	15	9	4	2	+17	+7.2	31
5	Lazio	16	10	1	5	+7	+11.6	31
6	Juventus	16	6	10	0	+14	+11.0	28
7	Bologna	15	6	7	2	+3	+1.7	25
8	Milan	15	6	5	4	+8	+10.1	23
9	Udinese	16	6	2	8	-6	-7.5	20
10	Empoli	16	4	7	5	-2	-9.8	19
11	Torino	16	5	4	7	-3	-6.0	19
12	Roma	16	4	4	8	-5	-3.4	16
13	Genoa	16	3	7	6	-11	-9.4	16
14	Lecce	16	4	4	8	-17	-8.0	16
15	Parma	16	3	6	7	-5	-6.6	15
16	Como	16	3	6	7	-10	-0.1	15
17	Verona	16	5	0	11	-18	-11.4	15
18	Cagliari	16	3	5	8	-11	-2.8	14
19	Monza	16	1	7	8	-7	-7.3	10
20	Venezia	16	2	4	10	-14	-8.7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lazio	8	6	1	1	+5	+9.2	19
2	Atalanta	7	6	0	1	+13	+8.2	18
3	Napoli	8	6	0	2	+6	+7.9	18
4	Inter	8	5	2	1	+9	+6.4	17
5	Fiorentina	7	5	2	0	+9	+6.7	17
6	Milan	8	4	3	1	+9	+7.1	15
7	Juventus	9	3	6	0	+6	+8.0	15
8	Bologna	7	3	4	0	+5	+4.8	13
9	Roma	8	4	0	4	+3	+0.5	12
10	Udinese	8	4	0	4	-2	-4.2	12
11	Lecce	8	3	3	2	-7	+0.5	12
12	Como	7	2	3	2	-3	+0.7	9
13	Cagliari	9	2	3	4	-7	-0.1	9
14	Verona	8	3	0	5	-10	-4.4	9
15	Torino	7	2	2	3	-1	-4.5	8
16	Parma	9	2	2	5	-3	-3.4	8
17	Venezia	7	2	1	4	-2	+3.2	7
18	Empoli	8	1	4	3	-4	-3.1	7
19	Genoa	9	0	6	3	-6	-4.5	6
20	Monza	8	0	3	5	-5	-3.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	9	6	1	2	+9	+6.9	19
2	Inter	7	5	2	0	+16	+8.0	17
3	Napoli	8	5	2	1	+7	+1.8	17
4	Fiorentina	8	4	2	2	+8	+0.5	14
5	Juventus	7	3	4	0	+8	+3.0	13
6	Lazio	8	4	0	4	+2	+2.4	12
7	Empoli	8	3	3	2	+2	-6.7	12
8	Bologna	8	3	3	2	-2	-3.1	12
9	Torino	9	3	2	4	-2	-1.5	11
10	Genoa	7	3	1	3	-5	-4.8	10
11	Milan	7	2	2	3	-1	+3.0	8
12	Udinese	8	2	2	4	-4	-3.3	8
13	Parma	7	1	4	2	-2	-3.2	7
14	Monza	8	1	4	3	-2	-4.2	7
15	Como	9	1	3	5	-7	-0.8	6
16	Verona	8	2	0	6	-8	-7.0	6
17	Cagliari	7	1	2	4	-4	-2.7	5
18	Roma	8	0	4	4	-8	-3.9	4
19	Lecce	8	1	1	6	-10	-8.5	4
20	Venezia	9	0	3	6	-12	-11.9	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.