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Serie A

Referee: F La Penna

Fiorentina

U U U S S

1–0

Full-time

Torino

T S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Torino

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,7

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 44%

53%

35%

Points per game

1,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

47%

29%

Both score Ø 35%

41%

29%

Average goals

2,6

1,9

Scored

1,5

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,55 xG 0,34

52% Possession 48%

12 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 5. · Torino 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	17	14	2	1	+34	+23.6	44
2	Juventus	17	12	4	1	+15	+15.2	40
3	Milan	17	10	3	4	+11	+2.9	33
4	Bologna	17	8	7	2	+9	+4.4	31
5	Fiorentina	17	9	3	5	+8	-1.8	30
6	Roma	17	8	4	5	+11	+8.2	28
7	Napoli	17	8	3	6	+7	+11.6	27
8	Atalanta	17	8	2	7	+8	+5.5	26
9	Lazio	17	7	3	7	+0	+4.1	24
10	Torino	17	6	6	5	-2	+0.2	24
11	Monza	17	5	6	6	-2	-5.1	21
12	Lecce	17	4	8	5	-4	-11.2	20
13	Genoa	17	5	4	8	-4	-0.7	19
14	Frosinone	17	5	4	8	-6	-6.2	19
15	Sassuolo	17	4	4	9	-7	-5.8	16
16	Verona	17	3	5	9	-8	-7.7	14
17	Udinese	17	1	11	5	-13	-4.2	14
18	Cagliari	17	3	4	10	-15	-6.2	13
19	Empoli	17	3	3	11	-20	-8.6	12
20	Salernitana	17	1	6	10	-22	-18.3	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	1	1	+18	+15.2	22
2	Bologna	9	7	1	1	+9	+2.4	22
3	Roma	9	6	2	1	+14	+6.5	20
4	Juventus	8	6	2	0	+8	+9.2	20
5	Milan	8	6	0	2	+10	+3.6	18
6	Frosinone	9	5	2	2	+3	-2.3	17
7	Atalanta	8	5	1	2	+9	+4.2	16
8	Fiorentina	8	5	1	2	+6	+0.8	16
9	Torino	9	4	4	1	+3	+3.9	16
10	Lecce	9	4	3	2	+0	-1.5	15
11	Lazio	8	4	2	2	+2	+4.7	14
12	Monza	9	3	4	2	+4	+0.2	13
13	Genoa	8	3	3	2	+1	-0.3	12
14	Cagliari	8	3	2	3	-4	+1.5	11
15	Napoli	8	3	1	4	-1	+5.1	10
16	Verona	8	2	3	3	-2	-2.0	9
17	Sassuolo	9	2	2	5	-3	-0.9	8
18	Salernitana	9	1	4	4	-9	-6.5	7
19	Udinese	8	0	6	2	-5	+2.1	6
20	Empoli	9	1	2	6	-9	-3.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	8	7	1	0	+16	+8.4	22
2	Juventus	9	6	2	1	+7	+6.1	20
3	Napoli	9	5	2	2	+8	+6.5	17
4	Milan	9	4	3	2	+1	-0.7	15
5	Fiorentina	9	4	2	3	+2	-2.6	14
6	Atalanta	9	3	1	5	-1	+1.3	10
7	Lazio	9	3	1	5	-2	-0.6	10
8	Bologna	8	1	6	1	+0	+2.1	9
9	Roma	8	2	2	4	-3	+1.7	8
10	Sassuolo	8	2	2	4	-4	-4.9	8
11	Torino	8	2	2	4	-5	-3.7	8
12	Monza	8	2	2	4	-6	-5.3	8
13	Udinese	9	1	5	3	-8	-6.3	8
14	Genoa	9	2	1	6	-5	-0.5	7
15	Empoli	8	2	1	5	-11	-5.1	7
16	Lecce	8	0	5	3	-4	-9.7	5
17	Verona	9	1	2	6	-6	-5.8	5
18	Frosinone	8	0	2	6	-9	-3.9	2
19	Cagliari	9	0	2	7	-11	-7.7	2
20	Salernitana	8	0	2	6	-13	-11.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.