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Serie A

Referee: A Giua

Monza

S S T T U

1–2

Full-time

Atalanta

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 32/31 matches

Win Ø 41%

34%

48%

Points per game

1,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

38%

65%

Both score Ø 47%

41%

52%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,1

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,09 xG 1,47

58% Possession 42%

17 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 8

0 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 11. · Atalanta 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	32	26	5	1	+60	+43.7	83
2	Milan	32	21	6	5	+26	+15.7	69
3	Juventus	33	18	10	5	+21	+23.8	64
4	Bologna	32	16	11	5	+20	+12.7	59
5	Roma	31	16	7	8	+21	+11.3	55
6	Lazio	33	16	4	13	+7	+4.5	52
7	Atalanta	31	15	6	10	+21	+9.7	51
8	Napoli	33	13	10	10	+9	+19.8	49
9	Fiorentina	32	13	8	11	+9	+1.2	47
10	Torino	33	11	13	9	+2	+4.8	46
11	Monza	32	11	10	11	-7	-13.7	43
12	Genoa	33	9	12	12	-5	-4.7	39
13	Lecce	33	8	11	14	-18	-9.1	35
14	Cagliari	33	7	11	15	-20	-10.2	32
15	Verona	33	7	10	16	-13	-13.0	31
16	Empoli	33	8	7	18	-22	-15.1	31
17	Udinese	32	4	16	12	-18	-10.1	28
18	Frosinone	33	6	10	17	-23	-15.3	28
19	Sassuolo	33	6	8	19	-26	-17.5	26
20	Salernitana	33	2	9	22	-44	-38.7	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	17	13	3	1	+31	+26.4	42
2	Bologna	17	12	3	2	+21	+9.1	39
3	Roma	16	11	3	2	+20	+10.6	36
4	Milan	15	11	2	2	+18	+8.3	35
5	Juventus	16	10	5	1	+13	+16.6	35
6	Atalanta	15	10	2	3	+21	+12.1	32
7	Torino	17	7	8	2	+7	+7.8	29
8	Fiorentina	16	8	4	4	+10	+6.1	28
9	Lazio	16	8	3	5	+6	+8.1	27
10	Cagliari	17	6	6	5	-3	+5.8	24
11	Napoli	16	6	5	5	-1	+10.9	23
12	Monza	16	6	5	5	-1	-5.2	23
13	Lecce	16	6	5	5	-6	+0.6	23
14	Frosinone	16	6	4	6	-1	-3.5	22
15	Genoa	16	5	6	5	-1	-1.4	21
16	Verona	16	5	5	6	-3	-6.0	20
17	Sassuolo	17	4	5	8	-10	-8.8	17
18	Empoli	17	4	4	9	-9	-5.5	16
19	Udinese	16	1	9	6	-7	-1.2	12
20	Salernitana	17	1	5	11	-19	-14.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	13	2	0	+29	+17.3	41
2	Milan	17	10	4	3	+8	+7.5	34
3	Juventus	17	8	5	4	+8	+7.2	29
4	Napoli	17	7	5	5	+10	+8.9	26
5	Lazio	17	8	1	8	+1	-3.7	25
6	Bologna	15	4	8	3	-1	+3.6	20
7	Monza	16	5	5	6	-6	-8.4	20
8	Roma	15	5	4	6	+1	+0.7	19
9	Atalanta	16	5	4	7	+0	-2.4	19
10	Fiorentina	16	5	4	7	-1	-4.8	19
11	Genoa	17	4	6	7	-4	-3.3	18
12	Torino	16	4	5	7	-5	-3.0	17
13	Udinese	16	3	7	6	-11	-8.9	16
14	Empoli	16	4	3	9	-13	-9.6	15
15	Lecce	17	2	6	9	-12	-9.7	12
16	Verona	17	2	5	10	-10	-7.0	11
17	Sassuolo	16	2	3	11	-16	-8.6	9
18	Cagliari	16	1	5	10	-17	-15.9	8
19	Salernitana	16	1	4	11	-25	-24.2	7
20	Frosinone	17	0	6	11	-22	-11.8	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.