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Serie A

Referee: A Rapuano

Roma

T U S U T

1–2

Full-time

Milan

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,5

2,5

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

0,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

1,5

3,0

Conceded

2,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+2,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,71 xG 1,66

43% Possession 57%

13 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Roma 14. · Milan 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.4	6
2	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+4	+4.0	6
3	Inter	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.2	6
4	Verona	3	2	0	1	+0	-2.1	6
5	Fiorentina	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.9	4
6	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.2	4
7	Lecce	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.2	4
8	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
9	Monza	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.9	3
10	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.5	3
11	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-2	-3.2	3
12	Genoa	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.7	3
13	Salernitana	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
14	Roma	2	0	1	1	-1	+2.6	1
15	Bologna	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.2	1
16	Cagliari	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.8	1
17	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
18	Torino	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.0	1
19	Lazio	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.0	0
20	Empoli	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
2	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+2	+3.4	3
3	Inter	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.9	3
4	Monza	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
5	Verona	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
6	Lecce	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
7	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
8	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.5	3
9	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
10	Roma	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.8	1
11	Juventus	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
12	Salernitana	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
13	Torino	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
14	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
15	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
16	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
17	Bologna	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.2	0
18	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.8	0
19	Udinese	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Fiorentina	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.8	3
2	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
3	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
4	Inter	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
5	Milan	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.2	3
6	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
7	Genoa	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.9	3
8	Verona	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.3	3
9	Lecce	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
10	Salernitana	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.8	1
11	Bologna	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
12	Udinese	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
13	Cagliari	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
14	Roma	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
15	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
16	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-2	-3.4	0
17	Monza	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.9	0
18	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
19	Torino	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.