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Serie A

Referee: F La Penna

Empoli

U U T T U

0–3

Full-time

Milan

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Empoli Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

0,8

2,3

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 39%

17%

61%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

28%

56%

Both score Ø 36%

22%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,9

Scored

0,6

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,90 xG 1,69

35% Possession 65%

17 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 6

10 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 6

9 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Empoli 19. · Milan 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	19	15	3	1	+35	+25.5	48
2	Juventus	18	13	4	1	+16	+15.9	43
3	Milan	18	11	3	4	+12	+4.0	36
4	Fiorentina	19	10	3	6	+8	-1.2	33
5	Bologna	19	8	8	3	+6	+5.4	32
6	Atalanta	18	9	2	7	+9	+5.4	29
7	Roma	18	8	4	6	+10	+7.5	28
8	Napoli	18	8	4	6	+7	+12.2	28
9	Lazio	18	8	3	7	+2	+4.5	27
10	Monza	19	6	7	6	-1	-5.5	25
11	Torino	18	6	6	6	-3	+0.0	24
12	Genoa	19	5	6	8	-4	-3.2	21
13	Lecce	19	4	9	6	-5	-10.4	21
14	Sassuolo	19	5	4	10	-7	-7.2	19
15	Frosinone	19	5	4	10	-9	-6.9	19
16	Udinese	18	2	11	5	-10	-4.0	17
17	Cagliari	19	3	6	10	-15	-5.3	15
18	Verona	19	3	5	11	-10	-8.0	14
19	Empoli	18	3	4	11	-20	-10.1	13
20	Salernitana	18	2	6	10	-21	-18.6	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	1	1	+19	+15.8	25
2	Bologna	10	7	2	1	+9	+3.6	23
3	Juventus	9	7	2	0	+9	+9.8	23
4	Milan	9	7	0	2	+11	+4.7	21
5	Roma	9	6	2	1	+14	+6.5	20
6	Atalanta	9	6	1	2	+10	+4.1	19
7	Fiorentina	9	6	1	2	+7	+1.0	19
8	Lazio	9	5	2	2	+4	+5.1	17
9	Frosinone	10	5	2	3	+2	-2.5	17
10	Torino	9	4	4	1	+3	+3.9	16
11	Lecce	10	4	4	2	+0	-0.9	16
12	Monza	9	3	4	2	+4	+0.2	13
13	Genoa	9	3	4	2	+1	-1.5	13
14	Cagliari	9	3	3	3	-4	+2.9	12
15	Napoli	9	3	2	4	-1	+5.7	11
16	Sassuolo	10	3	2	5	-2	-1.2	11
17	Udinese	9	1	6	2	-2	+2.2	9
18	Verona	9	2	3	4	-3	-1.7	9
19	Salernitana	9	1	4	4	-9	-6.5	7
20	Empoli	9	1	2	6	-9	-3.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	2	0	+16	+9.7	23
2	Juventus	9	6	2	1	+7	+6.1	20
3	Napoli	9	5	2	2	+8	+6.5	17
4	Milan	9	4	3	2	+1	-0.7	15
5	Fiorentina	10	4	2	4	+1	-2.2	14
6	Monza	10	3	3	4	-5	-5.7	12
7	Atalanta	9	3	1	5	-1	+1.3	10
8	Lazio	9	3	1	5	-2	-0.6	10
9	Bologna	9	1	6	2	-3	+1.9	9
10	Roma	9	2	2	5	-4	+1.1	8
11	Sassuolo	9	2	2	5	-5	-6.0	8
12	Genoa	10	2	2	6	-5	-1.7	8
13	Torino	9	2	2	5	-6	-3.9	8
14	Udinese	9	1	5	3	-8	-6.3	8
15	Empoli	9	2	2	5	-11	-6.6	8
16	Lecce	9	0	5	4	-5	-9.5	5
17	Verona	10	1	2	7	-7	-6.4	5
18	Salernitana	9	1	2	6	-12	-12.1	5
19	Cagliari	10	0	3	7	-11	-8.3	3
20	Frosinone	9	0	2	7	-11	-4.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.