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Coppa Italia

Referee: A Prontera

Milan

T S S U S

4–1

Full-time

Cagliari

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Cagliari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

1,8

Scored

2,2

0,7

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

61% Possession 39%

14 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Frosinone	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Bologna	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Parma	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Salernitana	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Reggiana	3	2	0	1	+4	6
6	Cremonese	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Cagliari	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Genoa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Sassuolo	2	1	1	0	+3	4
10	Udinese	2	1	0	1	+2	3
11	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	FeralpiSalo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Verona	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Cittadella	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Catanzaro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
18	Spezia	2	0	2	0	+0	2
19	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Venezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Virtus Entella	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Sudtirol	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Cesena	2	0	1	1	-2	1
24	Sampdoria	2	0	1	1	-4	1
25	Modena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Palermo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Inter	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Vicenza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Como	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Ternana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Pisa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Foggia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Ascoli	1	0	0	1	-2	0
36	Crotone	1	0	0	1	-2	0
37	Cosenza	1	0	0	1	-3	0
38	Bari	1	0	0	1	-3	0
39	Pescara	1	0	0	1	-4	0
40	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Salernitana	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Bologna	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Cremonese	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Genoa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Reggiana	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Udinese	2	1	0	1	+2	3
7	Verona	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Cagliari	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	FeralpiSalo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Frosinone	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Catanzaro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Cesena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Sampdoria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Sassuolo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Inter	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Cosenza	1	0	0	1	-3	0
24	Bari	1	0	0	1	-3	0
25	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Parma	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Frosinone	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Sassuolo	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Cagliari	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Bologna	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Reggiana	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Cittadella	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Venezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Virtus Entella	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Sudtirol	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Modena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Palermo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	FeralpiSalo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Vicenza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Como	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Ternana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Pisa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Foggia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Ascoli	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Crotone	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	Verona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Cesena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
26	Pescara	1	0	0	1	-4	0
27	Sampdoria	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.