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Serie A

Referee: D Massa

Milan

S S U S S

2–2

Full-time

Roma

S T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 63%

69%

56%

Points per game

2,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

69%

38%

Both score Ø 60%

75%

44%

Average goals

2,9

2,1

Scored

1,9

1,2

Conceded

1,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

61% Possession 39%

12 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 3. · Roma 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	17	14	2	1	+26	44
2	Juventus	17	11	4	2	+19	37
3	Milan	16	11	3	2	+15	36
4	Inter	17	11	1	5	+13	34
5	Lazio	17	9	4	4	+14	31
6	Roma	16	9	3	4	+5	30
7	Atalanta	16	8	4	4	+7	28
8	Udinese	17	6	7	4	+6	25
9	Fiorentina	17	6	5	6	-1	23
10	Torino	17	6	5	6	-1	23
11	Lecce	17	4	7	6	-2	19
12	Bologna	16	5	4	7	-6	19
13	Empoli	17	4	7	6	-7	19
14	Salernitana	17	4	6	7	-6	18
15	Monza	17	5	3	9	-6	18
16	Sassuolo	17	4	4	9	-9	16
17	Spezia	17	3	6	8	-12	15
18	Sampdoria	17	2	3	12	-22	9
19	Cremonese	16	0	7	9	-16	7
20	Verona	16	1	3	12	-17	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	9	7	2	0	+18	23
2	Napoli	8	7	1	0	+15	22
3	Inter	8	7	0	1	+16	21
4	Milan	8	7	0	1	+11	21
5	Lazio	9	5	2	2	+7	17
6	Bologna	8	4	3	1	+6	15
7	Fiorentina	9	4	3	2	+0	15
8	Udinese	8	3	4	1	+6	13
9	Monza	9	4	1	4	+3	13
10	Roma	8	4	1	3	+3	13
11	Salernitana	9	3	3	3	+3	12
12	Torino	8	3	3	2	+2	12
13	Spezia	9	2	6	1	+1	12
14	Sassuolo	8	3	2	3	+3	11
15	Atalanta	8	3	2	3	+0	11
16	Empoli	8	3	2	3	-1	11
17	Lecce	8	2	4	2	+0	10
18	Verona	8	1	0	7	-9	3
19	Cremonese	8	0	3	5	-10	3
20	Sampdoria	9	0	2	7	-13	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Atalanta	8	5	2	1	+7	17
3	Roma	8	5	2	1	+2	17
4	Milan	8	4	3	1	+4	15
5	Lazio	8	4	2	2	+7	14
6	Juventus	8	4	2	2	+1	14
7	Inter	9	4	1	4	-3	13
8	Udinese	9	3	3	3	+0	12
9	Torino	9	3	2	4	-3	11
10	Lecce	9	2	3	4	-2	9
11	Fiorentina	8	2	2	4	-1	8
12	Empoli	9	1	5	3	-6	8
13	Sampdoria	8	2	1	5	-9	7
14	Salernitana	8	1	3	4	-9	6
15	Monza	8	1	2	5	-9	5
16	Sassuolo	9	1	2	6	-12	5
17	Cremonese	8	0	4	4	-6	4
18	Bologna	8	1	1	6	-12	4
19	Verona	8	0	3	5	-8	3
20	Spezia	8	1	0	7	-13	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.