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Serie A

Referee: D Massa

Lecce

S S U U T

1–2

Full-time

Salernitana

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Salernitana

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,8

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,0

3,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-2,2

This season — Serie A · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 21%

21%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

32%

63%

Both score Ø 61%

63%

58%

Average goals

2,1

3,2

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,44 xG 0,87

60% Possession 40%

15 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 14. · Salernitana 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	19	16	2	1	+32	+1.0	50
2	Juventus	19	11	5	3	+15	+0.9	38
3	Milan	19	11	5	3	+11	-2.4	38
4	Lazio	19	11	4	4	+20	+2.4	37
5	Inter	19	12	1	6	+13	+0.6	37
6	Roma	19	11	4	4	+9	+1.7	37
7	Atalanta	19	10	5	4	+14	-0.9	35
8	Udinese	19	7	7	5	+6	+0.1	28
9	Torino	19	7	5	7	-1	-0.7	26
10	Bologna	20	7	5	8	-4	+0.5	26
11	Empoli	19	6	7	6	-5	-0.6	25
12	Fiorentina	19	6	5	8	-4	+0.7	23
13	Monza	19	6	4	9	-5	-0.0	22
14	Lecce	19	4	8	7	-4	+0.3	20
15	Salernitana	19	4	6	9	-14	-1.0	18
16	Spezia	20	4	6	10	-15	-2.9	18
17	Sassuolo	19	4	5	10	-11	+0.0	17
18	Verona	19	3	3	13	-14	-0.3	12
19	Sampdoria	19	2	3	14	-24	-0.1	9
20	Cremonese	19	0	8	11	-19	+0.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	9	8	1	0	+19	–	25
2	Juventus	10	7	3	0	+18	+0.9	24
3	Inter	10	8	0	2	+16	+0.6	24
4	Milan	9	7	1	1	+11	–	22
5	Lazio	10	6	2	2	+11	+2.4	20
6	Bologna	11	5	4	2	+7	+0.5	19
7	Roma	9	5	1	3	+5	–	16
8	Fiorentina	10	4	3	3	-1	+0.7	15
9	Atalanta	9	4	2	3	+6	–	14
10	Monza	10	4	2	4	+3	-0.0	14
11	Empoli	9	4	2	3	+0	–	14
12	Udinese	9	3	4	2	+5	–	13
13	Salernitana	10	3	3	4	+1	-1.0	12
14	Torino	9	3	3	3	+1	–	12
15	Spezia	10	2	6	2	-1	-1.7	12
16	Sassuolo	9	3	2	4	+1	–	11
17	Lecce	9	2	5	2	+0	–	11
18	Verona	10	3	0	7	-5	-0.3	9
19	Cremonese	9	0	3	6	-11	–	3
20	Sampdoria	10	0	2	8	-14	-0.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	10	8	1	1	+13	+1.0	25
2	Atalanta	10	6	3	1	+8	-0.9	21
3	Roma	10	6	3	1	+4	+1.7	21
4	Lazio	9	5	2	2	+9	–	17
5	Milan	10	4	4	2	+0	-2.4	16
6	Udinese	10	4	3	3	+1	+0.1	15
7	Torino	10	4	2	4	-2	-0.7	14
8	Juventus	9	4	2	3	-3	–	14
9	Inter	9	4	1	4	-3	–	13
10	Empoli	10	2	5	3	-5	-0.6	11
11	Lecce	10	2	3	5	-4	+0.3	9
12	Fiorentina	9	2	2	5	-3	–	8
13	Monza	9	2	2	5	-8	–	8
14	Sampdoria	9	2	1	6	-10	–	7
15	Bologna	9	2	1	6	-11	–	7
16	Sassuolo	10	1	3	6	-12	+0.0	6
17	Spezia	10	2	0	8	-14	-1.1	6
18	Salernitana	9	1	3	5	-15	–	6
19	Cremonese	10	0	5	5	-8	+0.6	5
20	Verona	9	0	3	6	-9	–	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.