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Serie A

Referee: M Di Bello

Atalanta

U U T S U

4–1

Full-time

Roma

S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,5

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,2

This season — Serie A · 11/12 matches

Win Ø 52%

45%

58%

Points per game

1,6

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

64%

75%

Both score Ø 62%

73%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,7

Scored

2,0

2,3

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

55% Possession 45%

9 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 8. · Roma 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	13	9	4	0	+15	31
2	Inter	13	9	3	1	+16	30
3	Napoli	11	8	0	3	+17	24
4	Juventus	12	6	6	0	+15	24
5	Roma	12	7	3	2	+10	24
6	Sassuolo	13	6	5	2	+8	23
7	Verona	13	5	5	3	+5	20
8	Atalanta	11	5	3	3	+5	18
9	Lazio	12	5	3	4	-2	18
10	Sampdoria	13	5	2	6	+0	17
11	Udinese	12	4	3	5	-1	15
12	Benevento	13	4	3	6	-8	15
13	Cagliari	13	3	5	5	-5	14
14	Bologna	13	4	2	7	-6	14
15	Parma	13	2	6	5	-11	12
16	Fiorentina	13	2	5	6	-8	11
17	Spezia	13	2	5	6	-9	11
18	Torino	13	1	4	8	-10	7
19	Genoa	13	1	4	8	-14	7
20	Crotone	13	1	3	9	-17	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	7	5	1	1	+6	16
2	Roma	6	4	2	0	+10	14
3	Napoli	6	4	0	2	+10	12
4	Milan	6	3	3	0	+7	12
5	Juventus	5	3	2	0	+6	11
6	Verona	7	3	2	2	+3	11
7	Sassuolo	7	2	3	2	+0	9
8	Fiorentina	7	2	3	2	+0	9
9	Bologna	6	3	0	3	-1	9
10	Cagliari	6	2	2	2	+0	8
11	Benevento	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Sampdoria	6	2	1	3	+2	7
13	Atalanta	5	2	1	2	+2	7
14	Udinese	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Parma	7	1	4	2	-5	7
16	Lazio	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Genoa	7	1	1	5	-5	4
18	Crotone	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Torino	7	0	3	4	-5	3
20	Spezia	6	0	3	3	-7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	7	6	1	0	+8	19
2	Inter	6	4	2	0	+10	14
3	Sassuolo	6	4	2	0	+8	14
4	Juventus	7	3	4	0	+9	13
5	Lazio	6	4	1	1	+3	13
6	Napoli	5	4	0	1	+7	12
7	Atalanta	6	3	2	1	+3	11
8	Roma	6	3	1	2	+0	10
9	Sampdoria	7	3	1	3	-2	10
10	Verona	6	2	3	1	+2	9
11	Udinese	6	2	2	2	+1	8
12	Spezia	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Benevento	6	2	1	3	-4	7
14	Cagliari	7	1	3	3	-5	6
15	Bologna	7	1	2	4	-5	5
16	Parma	6	1	2	3	-6	5
17	Torino	6	1	1	4	-5	4
18	Genoa	6	0	3	3	-9	3
19	Fiorentina	6	0	2	4	-8	2
20	Crotone	7	0	2	5	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.