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Serie A
Referee: M Fabbri
Empoli
U T U T U
2–4
Full-time
Roma
S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Empoli Roma
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,8
3,5
Scored
1,5
2,0
Conceded
2,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,5
This season — Serie A · 22/22 matches
Win Ø 43%
36%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
68%
55%
Both score Ø 62%
73%
50%
Average goals
3,5
2,9
Scored
1,6
1,6
Conceded
2,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,4
+0,4
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–4

58% Possession 42%
16 Shots 16
7 Shots on target 8
3 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 5
2 Corners 3
0 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Empoli 12. · Roma 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Inter 22 16 5 1 +36 53
2 Napoli 23 15 4 4 +27 49
3 Milan 22 15 3 4 +22 48
4 Atalanta 22 12 7 3 +18 43
5 Juventus 22 12 5 5 +13 41
6 Fiorentina 22 11 3 8 +11 36
7 Lazio 23 10 6 7 +7 36
8 Roma 22 11 2 9 +8 35
9 Verona 23 9 6 8 +5 33
10 Torino 22 9 5 8 +9 32
11 Sassuolo 23 7 8 8 +1 29
12 Empoli 22 8 5 9 -8 29
13 Bologna 22 8 3 11 -8 27
14 Spezia 23 7 4 12 -18 25
15 Udinese 21 4 9 8 -8 21
16 Sampdoria 23 5 5 13 -12 20
17 Venezia 22 4 6 12 -20 18
18 Cagliari 23 3 8 12 -22 17
19 Genoa 23 1 10 12 -25 13
20 Salernitana 21 3 2 16 -36 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Empoli Roma
24′
T. Abraham 0–1
Sérgio Oliveira
33′
T. Abraham 0–2
35′
Sérgio Oliveira 0–3
N. Zaniolo
37′
N. Zaniolo 0–4
H. Mkhitaryan
M. Viti 🔁
↦ R. Marchizza
42′
Half-time 0–4
52′
🟨 Gianluca Mancini
1–4 A. Pinamonti
F. Bandinelli
55′
60′
🔁 M. Viña
↦ A. Maitland-Niles
Lorenzo Tonelli 🟨
63′
2–4 N. Bajrami
L. Henderson
72′
75′
🔁 J. Veretout
↦ H. Mkhitaryan
79′
🔁 F. Ohene-Gyan
↦ N. Zaniolo
P. Cutrone 🔁
↦ L. Henderson
81′
M. Benassi 🔁
↦ F. Bandinelli
81′
Marco Benassi 🟨
83′
85′
🟨 Bryan Cristante
Full-time 2–4

Line-ups

Empoli

4-3-2-1
13 G. Vicario G
26 L. Tonelli D
20 R. Fiamozzi D
3 R. Marchizza D
34 A. Ismajli D
8 L. Henderson M
25 F. Bandinelli M
10 N. Bajrami M
27 S. Żurkowski M
28 S. Ricci M
99 A. Pinamonti F
Bench (11)
42 M. Viti
9 P. Cutrone
15 M. Benassi
36 L. Pezzola
31 A. Rizza
6 S. Romagnoli
19 A. La Mantia
22 J. Furlan
1 S. Ujkani
23 K. Asllani
16 J. Fazzini

Coach: A. Andreazzoli

Roma

3-4-1-2
1 Rui Patrício G
6 C. Smalling D
2 R. Karsdorp M
23 G. Mancini D
3 Ibañez D
77 H. Mkhitaryan F
27 Sérgio Oliveira M
4 B. Cristante M
15 A. Maitland-Niles M
22 N. Zaniolo F
9 T. Abraham F
Bench (12)
5 M. Viña
17 J. Veretout
64 F. Ohene-Gyan
59 N. Zalewski
24 M. Kumbulla
75 D. Keramitsis
87 Daniel Fuzato
11 Carles Pérez
52 E. Bove
92 S. El Shaarawy
14 E. Shomurodov
63 P. Boer

Coach: José Mourinho

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,04
U
4,08
B ✓
1,80
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,49
U2,5
2,60
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Fabbri · 116 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.