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Serie A

Referee: M Fabbri

Spezia

S S U T T

0–1

Full-time

Roma

S S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,3

This season — Serie A · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 37%

27%

46%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

62%

58%

Both score Ø 58%

62%

54%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

1,1

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

35% Possession 65%

9 Shots 31

3 Shots on target 10

2 Blocked shots 7

8 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 8

1 Offside 5

13 Free kicks against 11

5 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 16. · Roma 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	27	17	6	4	+24	57
2	Inter	26	16	7	3	+33	55
3	Napoli	26	16	6	4	+29	54
4	Juventus	27	14	8	5	+16	50
5	Atalanta	25	12	8	5	+16	44
6	Lazio	26	12	7	7	+13	43
7	Fiorentina	26	13	3	10	+9	42
8	Roma	26	12	5	9	+10	41
9	Verona	27	11	7	9	+9	40
10	Sassuolo	27	9	9	9	+0	36
11	Torino	26	9	6	11	+5	33
12	Bologna	26	9	5	12	-10	32
13	Empoli	27	8	7	12	-13	31
14	Sampdoria	26	7	5	14	-7	26
15	Udinese	25	5	11	9	-10	26
16	Spezia	26	7	5	14	-20	26
17	Cagliari	27	5	10	12	-20	25
18	Venezia	26	5	7	14	-23	22
19	Genoa	27	1	14	12	-25	17
20	Salernitana	25	3	6	16	-36	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	13	9	2	2	+18	29
2	Milan	14	8	3	3	+10	27
3	Napoli	13	8	2	3	+14	26
4	Verona	14	8	2	4	+12	26
5	Lazio	12	7	4	1	+15	25
6	Fiorentina	12	8	1	3	+15	25
7	Roma	14	7	4	3	+5	25
8	Torino	14	7	3	4	+11	24
9	Juventus	13	7	3	3	+8	24
10	Bologna	13	6	2	5	+1	20
11	Sassuolo	14	4	5	5	-3	17
12	Sampdoria	14	4	3	7	-3	15
13	Udinese	12	3	6	3	-3	15
14	Atalanta	12	3	5	4	+2	14
15	Spezia	12	3	3	6	-3	12
16	Cagliari	13	2	6	5	-6	12
17	Empoli	14	3	2	9	-15	11
18	Venezia	13	2	4	7	-10	10
19	Genoa	13	0	7	6	-10	7
20	Salernitana	13	1	4	8	-19	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	13	9	3	1	+14	30
2	Atalanta	13	9	3	1	+14	30
3	Napoli	13	8	4	1	+15	28
4	Inter	13	7	5	1	+15	26
5	Juventus	14	7	5	2	+8	26
6	Empoli	13	5	5	3	+2	20
7	Sassuolo	13	5	4	4	+3	19
8	Lazio	14	5	3	6	-2	18
9	Fiorentina	14	5	2	7	-6	17
10	Roma	12	5	1	6	+5	16
11	Verona	13	3	5	5	-3	14
12	Spezia	14	4	2	8	-17	14
13	Cagliari	14	3	4	7	-14	13
14	Bologna	13	3	3	7	-11	12
15	Venezia	13	3	3	7	-13	12
16	Sampdoria	12	3	2	7	-4	11
17	Udinese	13	2	5	6	-7	11
18	Genoa	14	1	7	6	-15	10
19	Torino	12	2	3	7	-6	9
20	Salernitana	12	2	2	8	-17	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.