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Serie A

Referee: M Serra

Milan

U T S S S

1–2

Full-time

Spezia

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 48%

71%

24%

Points per game

2,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

57%

Both score Ø 60%

62%

57%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

1,1

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%

25 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 7

10 Corners 1

1 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 2. · Spezia 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	21	15	5	1	+35	50
2	Milan	21	15	3	3	+23	48
3	Napoli	21	13	4	4	+22	43
4	Atalanta	21	12	6	3	+18	42
5	Juventus	22	12	5	5	+13	41
6	Roma	22	11	2	9	+8	35
7	Lazio	22	10	5	7	+7	35
8	Fiorentina	20	10	2	8	+5	32
9	Torino	21	9	4	8	+9	31
10	Verona	22	8	6	8	+4	30
11	Empoli	22	8	5	9	-8	29
12	Sassuolo	22	7	7	8	+1	28
13	Bologna	20	8	3	9	-5	27
14	Udinese	20	4	8	8	-8	20
15	Sampdoria	22	5	5	12	-11	20
16	Spezia	21	5	4	12	-20	19
17	Venezia	21	4	6	11	-19	18
18	Cagliari	22	3	7	12	-22	16
19	Genoa	21	1	9	11	-19	12
20	Salernitana	20	3	2	15	-33	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	2	0	+20	26
2	Torino	11	7	2	2	+13	23
3	Roma	12	7	2	3	+5	23
4	Napoli	11	7	1	3	+11	22
5	Milan	10	7	1	2	+10	22
6	Lazio	10	6	3	1	+12	21
7	Juventus	11	6	2	3	+6	20
8	Fiorentina	9	6	1	2	+11	19
9	Verona	11	5	2	4	+5	17
10	Bologna	10	5	1	4	+2	16
11	Atalanta	10	3	4	3	+3	13
12	Sassuolo	12	3	4	5	-4	13
13	Udinese	10	2	5	3	-5	11
14	Cagliari	11	2	4	5	-6	10
15	Empoli	11	3	1	7	-12	10
16	Spezia	10	2	3	5	-3	9
17	Venezia	11	2	3	6	-8	9
18	Sampdoria	12	2	3	7	-9	9
19	Genoa	10	0	4	6	-10	4
20	Salernitana	10	1	1	8	-19	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	11	9	2	0	+15	29
2	Milan	11	8	2	1	+13	26
3	Inter	11	7	3	1	+15	24
4	Napoli	10	6	3	1	+11	21
5	Juventus	11	6	3	2	+7	21
6	Empoli	11	5	4	2	+4	19
7	Sassuolo	10	4	3	3	+5	15
8	Lazio	12	4	2	6	-5	14
9	Verona	11	3	4	4	-1	13
10	Fiorentina	11	4	1	6	-6	13
11	Roma	10	4	0	6	+3	12
12	Sampdoria	10	3	2	5	-2	11
13	Bologna	10	3	2	5	-7	11
14	Spezia	11	3	1	7	-17	10
15	Udinese	10	2	3	5	-3	9
16	Venezia	10	2	3	5	-11	9
17	Torino	10	2	2	6	-4	8
18	Genoa	11	1	5	5	-9	8
19	Salernitana	10	2	1	7	-14	7
20	Cagliari	11	1	3	7	-16	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.