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Serie A

Referee: L Pairetto

Roma

S S S U T

4–3

Full-time

Spezia

T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 39%

56%

22%

Points per game

1,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 78%

78%

Both score Ø 62%

56%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,1

Scored

2,1

1,3

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

47% Possession 53%

13 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 1

2 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 4. · Spezia 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	18	13	4	1	+20	43
2	Inter	18	12	4	2	+22	40
3	Napoli	17	11	1	5	+24	34
4	Roma	18	10	4	4	+8	34
5	Atalanta	18	9	6	3	+18	33
6	Juventus	17	9	6	2	+17	33
7	Lazio	18	9	4	5	+5	31
8	Sassuolo	18	8	6	4	+4	30
9	Verona	18	7	6	5	+5	27
10	Sampdoria	18	7	2	9	-1	23
11	Benevento	19	6	4	9	-13	22
12	Bologna	18	5	5	8	-7	20
13	Spezia	18	4	6	8	-9	18
14	Fiorentina	18	4	6	8	-11	18
15	Udinese	18	4	5	9	-8	17
16	Genoa	18	3	6	9	-12	15
17	Torino	19	2	8	9	-9	14
18	Cagliari	18	3	5	10	-13	14
19	Parma	18	2	7	9	-20	13
20	Crotone	18	3	3	12	-20	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	1	1	+12	22
2	Roma	9	6	3	0	+12	21
3	Milan	9	5	3	1	+8	18
4	Atalanta	9	5	2	2	+12	17
5	Juventus	8	5	2	1	+8	17
6	Napoli	9	5	1	3	+15	16
7	Verona	9	4	2	3	+3	14
8	Lazio	9	4	2	3	+1	14
9	Bologna	9	4	2	3	+0	14
10	Sampdoria	9	4	1	4	+3	13
11	Sassuolo	9	3	4	2	+1	13
12	Fiorentina	9	3	4	2	+1	13
13	Crotone	9	3	1	5	-4	10
14	Benevento	10	2	3	5	-9	9
15	Genoa	9	2	2	5	-3	8
16	Udinese	9	2	2	5	-5	8
17	Cagliari	9	2	2	5	-6	8
18	Parma	9	1	4	4	-10	7
19	Spezia	9	1	3	5	-8	6
20	Torino	9	0	5	4	-5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	9	8	1	0	+12	25
2	Inter	9	5	3	1	+10	18
3	Napoli	8	6	0	2	+9	18
4	Lazio	9	5	2	2	+4	17
5	Sassuolo	9	5	2	2	+3	17
6	Juventus	9	4	4	1	+9	16
7	Atalanta	9	4	4	1	+6	16
8	Verona	9	3	4	2	+2	13
9	Roma	9	4	1	4	-4	13
10	Benevento	9	4	1	4	-4	13
11	Spezia	9	3	3	3	-1	12
12	Sampdoria	9	3	1	5	-4	10
13	Udinese	9	2	3	4	-3	9
14	Torino	10	2	3	5	-4	9
15	Genoa	9	1	4	4	-9	7
16	Cagliari	9	1	3	5	-7	6
17	Bologna	9	1	3	5	-7	6
18	Parma	9	1	3	5	-10	6
19	Fiorentina	9	1	2	6	-12	5
20	Crotone	9	0	2	7	-16	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.