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Serie A

Referee: A Giua

Crotone

T U T T T

4–1

Full-time

Spezia

T S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crotone Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

2,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 10%

20%

Points per game

0,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

50%

80%

Both score Ø 55%

50%

60%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

0,6

1,4

Conceded

2,4

1,9

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

40% Possession 60%

7 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 4

4 Offside 5

16 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Crotone 20. · Spezia 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	10	8	2	0	+14	26
2	Sassuolo	11	6	4	1	+9	22
3	Napoli	9	7	0	2	+17	21
4	Inter	10	6	3	1	+12	21
5	Roma	10	5	3	2	+4	18
6	Juventus	9	4	5	0	+9	17
7	Lazio	10	5	2	3	-1	17
8	Verona	10	4	4	2	+5	16
9	Atalanta	9	4	2	3	+2	14
10	Bologna	10	4	0	6	-2	12
11	Cagliari	10	3	3	4	-3	12
12	Sampdoria	10	3	2	5	-2	11
13	Benevento	11	3	2	6	-10	11
14	Udinese	9	3	1	5	-2	10
15	Spezia	10	2	4	4	-5	10
16	Parma	10	2	4	4	-7	10
17	Fiorentina	10	2	3	5	-5	9
18	Torino	10	1	3	6	-7	6
19	Genoa	10	1	3	6	-10	6
20	Crotone	10	0	2	8	-18	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	5	3	2	0	+8	11
2	Milan	5	3	2	0	+7	11
3	Verona	6	3	2	1	+4	11
4	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+6	10
5	Inter	5	3	1	1	+4	10
6	Napoli	5	3	0	2	+9	9
7	Bologna	5	3	0	2	+3	9
8	Sassuolo	6	2	3	1	+1	9
9	Cagliari	4	2	1	1	+2	7
10	Fiorentina	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Parma	5	1	3	1	-1	6
12	Udinese	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Lazio	5	1	2	2	-4	5
14	Sampdoria	5	1	1	3	+0	4
15	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Benevento	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	Genoa	5	1	0	4	-3	3
18	Torino	5	0	2	3	-4	2
19	Spezia	5	0	2	3	-7	2
20	Crotone	5	0	1	4	-9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	5	5	0	0	+7	15
2	Sassuolo	5	4	1	0	+8	13
3	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+8	12
4	Lazio	5	4	0	1	+3	12
5	Inter	5	3	2	0	+8	11
6	Atalanta	5	3	1	1	+3	10
7	Spezia	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Juventus	5	1	4	0	+3	7
9	Sampdoria	5	2	1	2	-2	7
10	Benevento	6	2	1	3	-4	7
11	Roma	5	2	1	2	-4	7
12	Verona	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-5	5
14	Udinese	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Torino	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Parma	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	Bologna	5	1	0	4	-5	3
18	Genoa	5	0	3	2	-7	3
19	Fiorentina	5	0	2	3	-5	2
20	Crotone	5	0	1	4	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.