Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Virtus Entella
Empoli
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Salernitana
|
10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 23 |
| 2 |
Spal
|
10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +10 | 21 |
| 3 |
Lecce
|
10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +12 | 19 |
| 4 |
Empoli
|
10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +7 | 19 |
| 5 |
Frosinone
|
10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 19 |
| 6 |
Venezia
|
11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +5 | 18 |
| 7 |
Chievo
|
10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |
Monza
|
11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |
Cittadella
|
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +6 | 14 |
| 10 | Pordenone | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 |
Reggiana
|
9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 |
Brescia
|
10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 |
Reggina
|
11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 |
Pisa
|
10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 |
Vicenza
|
9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 16 |
Cosenza
|
10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 17 |
Cremonese
|
10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 |
Pescara
|
10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 19 |
Ascoli
|
10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 5 |
| 20 |
Virtus Entella
|
10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Cremonese
Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
Spal
Ascoli
Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
Venezia
Virtus Entella
Lecce
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.