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Serie A

Referee: V Marini

Cagliari

S S T S T

2–2

Full-time

Spezia

U U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cagliari Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,5

3,2

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

2,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

This season — Serie A · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 32%

38%

25%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 57%

63%

50%

Average goals

3,9

3,3

Scored

1,8

1,4

Conceded

2,1

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

38% Possession 62%

9 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 6

16 Free kicks against 18

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cagliari 13. · Spezia 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	9	7	2	0	+13	23
2	Inter	9	5	3	1	+10	18
3	Sassuolo	9	5	3	1	+8	18
4	Roma	8	5	2	1	+8	17
5	Napoli	7	5	0	2	+9	15
6	Verona	9	4	3	2	+5	15
7	Juventus	8	3	5	0	+8	14
8	Atalanta	9	4	2	3	+2	14
9	Lazio	9	4	2	3	-2	14
10	Bologna	9	4	0	5	+0	12
11	Sampdoria	8	3	1	4	-1	10
12	Udinese	9	3	1	5	-2	10
13	Cagliari	8	3	1	4	-3	10
14	Benevento	9	3	1	5	-9	10
15	Spezia	8	2	3	3	-4	9
16	Fiorentina	9	2	2	5	-5	8
17	Parma	8	1	3	4	-8	6
18	Torino	8	1	2	5	-6	5
19	Genoa	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Crotone	9	0	2	7	-14	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	5	3	2	0	+7	11
2	Roma	4	3	1	0	+8	10
3	Verona	5	3	1	1	+4	10
4	Bologna	5	3	0	2	+3	9
5	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+5	7
6	Inter	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Napoli	4	2	0	2	+5	6
8	Cagliari	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Sassuolo	5	1	3	1	+0	6
10	Fiorentina	4	2	0	2	+0	6
11	Udinese	5	2	0	3	-2	6
12	Parma	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Lazio	5	1	2	2	-4	5
14	Sampdoria	4	1	1	2	+1	4
15	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Benevento	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	Genoa	4	1	0	3	-2	3
18	Spezia	4	0	2	2	-6	2
19	Torino	4	0	1	3	-4	1
20	Crotone	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sassuolo	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Milan	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Inter	5	3	2	0	+8	11
4	Atalanta	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+4	9
6	Lazio	4	3	0	1	+2	9
7	Juventus	5	1	4	0	+3	7
8	Spezia	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Roma	4	2	1	1	+0	7
10	Sampdoria	4	2	0	2	-2	6
11	Benevento	4	2	0	2	-3	6
12	Verona	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Udinese	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Torino	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Cagliari	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	Bologna	4	1	0	3	-3	3
17	Fiorentina	5	0	2	3	-5	2
18	Genoa	4	0	2	2	-7	2
19	Parma	4	0	1	3	-7	1
20	Crotone	5	0	1	4	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.