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Süper Lig

Referee: Tugay Kaan Numanoglu

Hatayspor

U S U T S

3–1

Full-time

Karagumruk

S U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hatayspor Karagumruk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,5

This season — Süper Lig · 9/11 matches

Win Ø 40%

44%

36%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

44%

55%

Both score Ø 43%

22%

64%

Average goals

2,4

2,8

Scored

1,1

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%

7 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 4

1 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Hatayspor 11. · Karagumruk 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Alanyaspor	11	7	2	2	+14	23
2	Galatasaray	11	7	2	2	+12	23
3	Fenerbahce	11	7	2	2	+9	23
4	Besiktas	10	6	1	3	+3	19
5	Goztep	11	4	6	1	+7	18
6	Kasimpasa	12	5	3	4	+1	18
7	Karagumruk	11	4	5	2	+7	17
8	Konyaspor	10	4	3	3	+5	15
9	Gaziantep	10	3	6	1	+2	15
10	Buyuksehyr	11	4	3	4	+1	15
11	Hatayspor	9	4	3	2	-2	15
12	Yeni Malatyaspor	10	3	4	3	-2	13
13	Trabzonspor	11	3	4	4	-3	13
14	Antalyaspor	11	3	4	4	-4	13
15	Rizespor	10	3	3	4	-3	12
16	Sivasspor	10	2	4	4	-3	10
17	Kayserispor	10	2	3	5	-6	9
18	Erzurumspor	11	2	3	6	-9	9
19	Genclerbirligi	10	2	2	6	-9	8
20	Denizlispor	11	1	3	7	-11	6
21	Ankaragücü	9	0	2	7	-9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Karagumruk	6	4	2	0	+10	14
2	Kasimpasa	6	4	2	0	+6	14
3	Alanyaspor	5	4	1	0	+11	13
4	Goztep	6	3	2	1	+6	11
5	Hatayspor	5	3	2	0	+6	11
6	Galatasaray	6	3	2	1	+5	11
7	Yeni Malatyaspor	5	3	2	0	+4	11
8	Konyaspor	5	3	1	1	+5	10
9	Besiktas	5	3	1	1	+4	10
10	Antalyaspor	6	3	1	2	+1	10
11	Gaziantep	5	2	3	0	+3	9
12	Buyuksehyr	5	2	2	1	+3	8
13	Fenerbahce	5	2	1	2	+0	7
14	Trabzonspor	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Rizespor	5	2	1	2	-2	7
16	Genclerbirligi	5	1	2	2	-4	5
17	Kayserispor	5	1	1	3	-4	4
18	Erzurumspor	5	0	3	2	-2	3
19	Denizlispor	5	0	2	3	-4	2
20	Ankaragücü	4	0	1	3	-3	1
21	Sivasspor	5	0	1	4	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fenerbahce	6	5	1	0	+9	16
2	Galatasaray	5	4	0	1	+7	12
3	Alanyaspor	6	3	1	2	+3	10
4	Sivasspor	5	2	3	0	+3	9
5	Besiktas	5	3	0	2	-1	9
6	Goztep	5	1	4	0	+1	7
7	Buyuksehyr	6	2	1	3	-2	7
8	Gaziantep	5	1	3	1	-1	6
9	Trabzonspor	5	1	3	1	-1	6
10	Erzurumspor	6	2	0	4	-7	6
11	Konyaspor	5	1	2	2	+0	5
12	Rizespor	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Kayserispor	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Kasimpasa	6	1	1	4	-5	4
15	Denizlispor	6	1	1	4	-7	4
16	Hatayspor	4	1	1	2	-8	4
17	Karagumruk	5	0	3	2	-3	3
18	Antalyaspor	5	0	3	2	-5	3
19	Genclerbirligi	5	1	0	4	-5	3
20	Yeni Malatyaspor	5	0	2	3	-6	2
21	Ankaragücü	5	0	1	4	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.