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Serie A

Referee: J Sacchi

Crotone

T U T T U

0–2

Full-time

Lazio

U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crotone Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,7

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,7

This season — Serie A · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 22%

43%

Points per game

0,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

57%

Both score Ø 71%

71%

Average goals

3,3

3,4

Scored

0,9

1,6

Conceded

2,4

1,9

Goal diff per game

-1,6

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

51% Possession 49%

12 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 9

1 Blocked shots 0

7 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Crotone 20. · Lazio 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	7	5	2	0	+9	17
2	Napoli	6	5	0	1	+11	15
3	Sassuolo	7	4	3	0	+9	15
4	Roma	7	4	2	1	+5	14
5	Atalanta	7	4	1	2	+4	13
6	Inter	7	3	3	1	+5	12
7	Verona	7	3	3	1	+5	12
8	Lazio	7	3	2	2	-2	11
9	Juventus	6	2	4	0	+6	10
10	Sampdoria	7	3	1	3	+0	10
11	Cagliari	7	3	1	3	-1	10
12	Fiorentina	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Spezia	7	2	2	3	-4	8
14	Bologna	7	2	0	5	-2	6
15	Parma	7	1	3	3	-5	6
16	Benevento	7	2	0	5	-10	6
17	Torino	7	1	2	4	-4	5
18	Genoa	7	1	2	4	-8	5
19	Udinese	7	1	1	5	-5	4
20	Crotone	7	0	2	5	-11	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Verona	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Milan	4	2	2	0	+5	8
3	Roma	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+7	6
5	Sassuolo	4	1	3	0	+3	6
6	Bologna	4	2	0	2	+2	6
7	Cagliari	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Fiorentina	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Parma	4	1	2	1	-1	5
10	Lazio	4	1	2	1	-2	5
11	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+3	4
12	Sampdoria	3	1	1	1	+2	4
13	Atalanta	3	1	1	1	+1	4
14	Inter	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Genoa	4	1	0	3	-2	3
16	Udinese	4	1	0	3	-3	3
17	Benevento	4	1	0	3	-6	3
18	Crotone	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Torino	4	0	1	3	-4	1
20	Spezia	3	0	1	2	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sassuolo	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Milan	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+4	9
4	Atalanta	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Inter	4	2	2	0	+5	8
6	Spezia	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Roma	4	2	1	1	+0	7
8	Juventus	4	1	3	0	+3	6
9	Lazio	3	2	0	1	+0	6
10	Sampdoria	4	2	0	2	-2	6
11	Torino	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Cagliari	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	Benevento	3	1	0	2	-4	3
14	Verona	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Fiorentina	4	0	2	2	-3	2
16	Genoa	3	0	2	1	-6	2
17	Udinese	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Parma	3	0	1	2	-4	1
19	Crotone	4	0	1	3	-8	1
20	Bologna	3	0	0	3	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.