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Serie A

Referee: D Chiffi

Spezia

U T S U U

1–2

Full-time

Lazio

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,5

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 33%

22%

44%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

78%

56%

Both score Ø 62%

56%

67%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

1,9

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

65% Possession 35%

11 Shots 3

6 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 0

1 Offside 4

15 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 14. · Lazio 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	9	7	2	0	+13	23
2	Napoli	8	6	0	2	+13	18
3	Inter	9	5	3	1	+10	18
4	Sassuolo	9	5	3	1	+8	18
5	Roma	9	5	2	2	+4	17
6	Verona	9	4	3	2	+5	15
7	Juventus	8	3	5	0	+8	14
8	Atalanta	9	4	2	3	+2	14
9	Lazio	9	4	2	3	-2	14
10	Bologna	9	4	0	5	+0	12
11	Sampdoria	9	3	2	4	-1	11
12	Cagliari	9	3	2	4	-3	11
13	Udinese	9	3	1	5	-2	10
14	Spezia	9	2	4	3	-4	10
15	Benevento	9	3	1	5	-9	10
16	Parma	9	2	3	4	-7	9
17	Fiorentina	9	2	2	5	-5	8
18	Torino	9	1	3	5	-6	6
19	Genoa	9	1	2	6	-10	5
20	Crotone	9	0	2	7	-14	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	5	3	2	0	+7	11
2	Roma	4	3	1	0	+8	10
3	Verona	5	3	1	1	+4	10
4	Napoli	5	3	0	2	+9	9
5	Bologna	5	3	0	2	+3	9
6	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+5	7
7	Inter	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Cagliari	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Sassuolo	5	1	3	1	+0	6
10	Fiorentina	4	2	0	2	+0	6
11	Udinese	5	2	0	3	-2	6
12	Parma	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Lazio	5	1	2	2	-4	5
14	Sampdoria	4	1	1	2	+1	4
15	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Benevento	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	Genoa	5	1	0	4	-3	3
18	Torino	5	0	2	3	-4	2
19	Spezia	4	0	2	2	-6	2
20	Crotone	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sassuolo	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Milan	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Inter	5	3	2	0	+8	11
4	Atalanta	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+4	9
6	Lazio	4	3	0	1	+2	9
7	Spezia	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Juventus	5	1	4	0	+3	7
9	Sampdoria	5	2	1	2	-2	7
10	Roma	5	2	1	2	-4	7
11	Benevento	4	2	0	2	-3	6
12	Verona	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Udinese	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Torino	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Cagliari	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	Parma	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	Bologna	4	1	0	3	-3	3
18	Fiorentina	5	0	2	3	-5	2
19	Genoa	4	0	2	2	-7	2
20	Crotone	5	0	1	4	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.