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Championship

Referee: J Simpson

Luton

U T S T U

3–0

Full-time

Preston

T T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Preston

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

This season — Championship · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 38%

35%

41%

Points per game

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

24%

65%

Both score Ø 41%

35%

47%

Average goals

2,0

2,9

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

46% Possession 54%

19 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 14. · Preston 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	17	10	4	3	+7	34
2	Swansea	17	9	5	3	+11	32
3	Bournemouth	17	8	7	2	+13	31
4	Watford	17	8	6	3	+9	30
5	Reading	17	9	3	5	+6	30
6	Bristol City	17	9	3	5	+4	30
7	Stoke	17	8	4	5	+4	28
8	Brentford	16	7	6	3	+9	27
9	Cardiff	18	7	5	6	+7	26
10	Blackburn	17	7	4	6	+11	25
11	Middlesbrough	17	6	6	5	+2	24
12	Huddersfield	17	7	3	7	+0	24
13	Preston	17	7	2	8	+0	23
14	Luton	17	6	5	6	-6	23
15	Birmingham	17	5	7	5	-1	22
16	Barnsley	17	6	4	7	-3	22
17	Millwall	17	4	9	4	+0	21
18	QPR	17	4	6	7	-7	18
19	Coventry	17	4	6	7	-8	18
20	Sheffield Weds	17	3	6	8	-8	15
21	Rotherham	17	3	4	10	-10	13
22	Nott'm Forest	17	3	4	10	-11	13
23	Derby	17	2	6	9	-14	12
24	Wycombe	17	2	5	10	-15	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	9	7	1	1	+10	22
2	Swansea	9	5	3	1	+7	18
3	Reading	9	6	0	3	+4	18
4	Norwich	9	5	3	1	+4	18
5	Middlesbrough	8	5	2	1	+7	17
6	Bournemouth	8	5	2	1	+6	17
7	Huddersfield	9	5	1	3	+4	16
8	Coventry	9	4	3	2	-1	15
9	Blackburn	8	4	2	2	+6	14
10	Barnsley	9	4	2	3	+1	14
11	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	+1	14
12	Stoke	9	4	2	3	+0	14
13	Brentford	8	3	4	1	+4	13
14	QPR	8	3	3	2	+1	12
15	Luton	8	3	3	2	+0	12
16	Cardiff	9	3	2	4	+4	11
17	Nott'm Forest	8	2	3	3	-1	9
18	Millwall	9	1	6	2	-2	9
19	Rotherham	8	2	2	4	-1	8
20	Sheffield Weds	8	1	5	2	-1	8
21	Birmingham	8	2	2	4	-3	8
22	Preston	9	2	1	6	-5	7
23	Wycombe	8	1	3	4	-4	6
24	Derby	8	0	3	5	-10	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	8	5	1	2	+5	16
2	Norwich	8	5	1	2	+3	16
3	Bristol City	8	5	1	2	+3	16
4	Cardiff	9	4	3	2	+3	15
5	Bournemouth	9	3	5	1	+7	14
6	Brentford	8	4	2	2	+5	14
7	Swansea	8	4	2	2	+4	14
8	Stoke	8	4	2	2	+4	14
9	Birmingham	9	3	5	1	+2	14
10	Reading	8	3	3	2	+2	12
11	Millwall	8	3	3	2	+2	12
12	Blackburn	9	3	2	4	+5	11
13	Luton	9	3	2	4	-6	11
14	Derby	9	2	3	4	-4	9
15	Watford	8	1	5	2	-1	8
16	Huddersfield	8	2	2	4	-4	8
17	Barnsley	8	2	2	4	-4	8
18	Middlesbrough	9	1	4	4	-5	7
19	Sheffield Weds	9	2	1	6	-7	7
20	QPR	9	1	3	5	-8	6
21	Rotherham	9	1	2	6	-9	5
22	Wycombe	9	1	2	6	-11	5
23	Nott'm Forest	9	1	1	7	-10	4
24	Coventry	8	0	3	5	-7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.