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Serie A

Referee: L Pairetto

Crotone

U S S T T

0–2

Full-time

Milan

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crotone Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,7

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

1,5

2,8

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+2,2

This season — Serie A · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

0,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

5,0

2,0

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

4,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

-3,0

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

47% Possession 53%

5 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 7

0 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 5

3 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Crotone 17. · Milan 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Verona	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Sassuolo	2	1	1	0	+3	4
3	Genoa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Milan	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Inter	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Benevento	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Fiorentina	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Cagliari	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	Udinese	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Parma	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Bologna	1	0	0	1	-2	0
16	Torino	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Crotone	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Spezia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
19	Roma	1	0	0	1	-3	0
20	Sampdoria	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Verona	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Genoa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Milan	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Inter	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Fiorentina	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Sassuolo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Sampdoria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
9	Torino	1	0	0	1	-2	0
10	Parma	1	0	0	1	-2	0
11	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-2	0
12	Spezia	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sassuolo	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Benevento	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Cagliari	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Fiorentina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
8	Torino	1	0	0	1	-1	0
9	Udinese	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	Bologna	1	0	0	1	-2	0
11	Crotone	1	0	0	1	-3	0
12	Sampdoria	1	0	0	1	-3	0
13	Roma	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.