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Serie A

Referee: D Doveri

Milan

S U S S S

1–1

Full-time

Atalanta

S U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,3

3,0

Scored

3,2

2,2

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,3

This season — Serie A · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 56%

49%

63%

Points per game

1,7

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

54%

74%

Both score Ø 63%

57%

69%

Average goals

2,8

4,0

Scored

1,6

2,7

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

47% Possession 53%

6 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 7

2 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 6. · Atalanta 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	35	25	5	5	+35	80
2	Atalanta	35	22	8	5	+51	74
3	Inter	35	21	10	4	+38	73
4	Lazio	35	22	6	7	+33	72
5	Roma	35	18	7	10	+22	61
6	Milan	35	17	8	10	+11	59
7	Napoli	35	16	8	11	+9	56
8	Sassuolo	35	13	9	13	+4	48
9	Verona	35	11	13	11	+0	46
10	Parma	35	12	7	16	-2	43
11	Fiorentina	35	10	13	12	-2	43
12	Bologna	35	11	10	14	-10	43
13	Cagliari	35	10	12	13	-2	42
14	Sampdoria	35	12	5	18	-12	41
15	Udinese	35	10	9	16	-15	39
16	Torino	35	11	5	19	-21	38
17	Genoa	35	9	9	17	-21	36
18	Lecce	35	8	8	19	-32	32
19	Brescia	35	6	6	23	-41	24
20	Spal	35	5	4	26	-45	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	17	15	2	0	+29	47
2	Lazio	18	13	3	2	+27	42
3	Atalanta	18	12	2	4	+27	38
4	Inter	18	10	6	2	+21	36
5	Roma	18	9	4	5	+8	31
6	Milan	17	8	5	4	+8	29
7	Verona	17	8	5	4	+5	29
8	Napoli	17	8	3	6	+3	27
9	Torino	18	7	4	7	-6	25
10	Sassuolo	17	7	3	7	+7	24
11	Udinese	18	6	6	6	-4	24
12	Parma	18	7	2	9	+3	23
13	Cagliari	17	6	4	7	+3	22
14	Sampdoria	18	6	4	8	-2	22
15	Fiorentina	18	4	8	6	-4	20
16	Bologna	17	4	7	6	-5	19
17	Genoa	17	6	1	10	-7	19
18	Lecce	18	4	5	9	-10	17
19	Brescia	17	3	4	10	-12	13
20	Spal	17	2	3	12	-22	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	17	11	4	2	+17	37
2	Atalanta	17	10	6	1	+24	36
3	Juventus	18	10	3	5	+6	33
4	Roma	17	9	3	5	+14	30
5	Lazio	17	9	3	5	+6	30
6	Milan	18	9	3	6	+3	30
7	Napoli	18	8	5	5	+6	29
8	Sassuolo	18	6	6	6	-3	24
9	Bologna	18	7	3	8	-5	24
10	Fiorentina	17	6	5	6	+2	23
11	Parma	17	5	5	7	-5	20
12	Cagliari	18	4	8	6	-5	20
13	Sampdoria	17	6	1	10	-10	19
14	Verona	18	3	8	7	-5	17
15	Genoa	18	3	8	7	-14	17
16	Udinese	17	4	3	10	-11	15
17	Lecce	17	4	3	10	-22	15
18	Torino	17	4	1	12	-15	13
19	Brescia	18	3	2	13	-29	11
20	Spal	18	3	1	14	-23	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.