Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Team trends
Farense
Nacional
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Match stats
Half-time score: 0–0
The table before the match Farense 14. · Nacional 7. ▾
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Porto
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 6 |
| 2 |
Benfica
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 6 |
| 3 |
Santa Clara
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 |
Belenenses
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 |
Moreirense
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +0 | 3 |
| 6 |
Maritimo
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 7 |
Nacional
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 8 |
Portimonense
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 9 |
Pacos Ferreira
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 10 |
Rio Ave
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 11 |
Tondela
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 |
Boavista
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 1 |
| 13 |
Guimaraes
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 |
Farense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 |
Sp Braga
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 |
Famalicao
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Match report
Line-ups
Farense
4-2-3-1Bench (8)
Coach: Sérgio Vieira
Nacional
4-2-3-1Bench (7)
Coach: Carlos Simões
Odds comparison
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Referee
Gustavo Correia · 111 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,39 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.