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Serie A

Referee: Fabio Maresca

Milan

U S T T U

1–0

Full-time

Crotone

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Crotone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

0,8

0,3

Conceded

1,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,8

This season — Serie A · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 29%

37%

21%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

53%

Both score Ø 40%

47%

32%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,4

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

66% Possession 34%

26 Shots 8

9 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

14 Corners 0

2 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 11. · Crotone 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	19	15	3	1	+29	48
2	Juventus	19	15	2	2	+33	47
3	Inter	20	12	6	2	+20	42
4	Roma	18	12	3	3	+17	39
5	Lazio	18	11	4	3	+21	37
6	Sampdoria	18	9	3	6	+8	30
7	Fiorentina	20	7	7	6	+8	28
8	Udinese	19	9	1	9	+6	28
9	Torino	20	6	10	4	+1	28
10	Atalanta	19	7	6	6	+4	27
11	Milan	19	7	4	8	-3	25
12	Bologna	20	7	3	10	-7	24
13	Chievo	20	5	7	8	-12	22
14	Sassuolo	19	6	3	10	-16	21
15	Cagliari	19	6	2	11	-12	20
16	Genoa	19	4	6	9	-7	18
17	Spal	19	3	6	10	-14	15
18	Crotone	19	4	3	12	-24	15
19	Verona	19	3	4	12	-21	13
20	Benevento	19	1	1	17	-31	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	10	8	1	1	+18	25
2	Inter	10	7	2	1	+13	23
3	Roma	10	7	1	2	+8	22
4	Sampdoria	9	7	0	2	+14	21
5	Napoli	9	6	2	1	+14	20
6	Atalanta	10	5	3	2	+8	18
7	Fiorentina	10	4	4	2	+5	16
8	Udinese	10	5	0	5	+4	15
9	Lazio	8	4	2	2	+10	14
10	Torino	10	3	5	2	+4	14
11	Milan	9	4	2	3	-1	14
12	Chievo	10	3	4	3	-2	13
13	Crotone	10	3	2	5	-6	11
14	Spal	9	2	4	3	-2	10
15	Cagliari	9	3	1	5	-4	10
16	Bologna	10	2	3	5	-5	9
17	Sassuolo	9	2	2	5	-6	8
18	Verona	10	2	1	7	-11	7
19	Genoa	9	1	2	6	-7	5
20	Benevento	10	1	1	8	-15	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	10	9	1	0	+15	28
2	Lazio	10	7	2	1	+11	23
3	Juventus	9	7	1	1	+15	22
4	Inter	10	5	4	1	+7	19
5	Roma	8	5	2	1	+9	17
6	Bologna	10	5	0	5	-2	15
7	Torino	10	3	5	2	-3	14
8	Udinese	9	4	1	4	+2	13
9	Genoa	10	3	4	3	+0	13
10	Sassuolo	10	4	1	5	-10	13
11	Fiorentina	10	3	3	4	+3	12
12	Milan	10	3	2	5	-2	11
13	Cagliari	10	3	1	6	-8	10
14	Atalanta	9	2	3	4	-4	9
15	Sampdoria	9	2	3	4	-6	9
16	Chievo	10	2	3	5	-10	9
17	Verona	9	1	3	5	-10	6
18	Spal	10	1	2	7	-12	5
19	Crotone	9	1	1	7	-18	4
20	Benevento	9	0	0	9	-16	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.